CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China
Wenxiang Wu A C , Qian Fang A B , Quansheng Ge A , Mengzi Zhou B and Yumei Lin A B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Beijing 100101, China.
B University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049, China.
C Corresponding author. Email: wuwx@igsnrr.ac.cn
Crop and Pasture Science 65(12) 1267-1277 https://doi.org/10.1071/CP14009
Submitted: 6 January 2014 Accepted: 21 July 2014 Published: 10 November 2014
Abstract
Global temperatures are rising, and concerns about the response of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. Adaptation is a key factor that will shape the severity of impacts of future climate change on food production. Based on actual meteorological, soil and agricultural management data at site scale, the CERES-Rice model, combined with the Regional Climate Model (RCM)-PRECIS, was used to simulate both the effects of climate change on rice yields and the efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China. The impact simulation showed that rice yield changes ranged from +0.1% to –44.9% (A2 scenario) and from –0.3% to –40.1% (B2 scenario) without considering CO2 fertilisation effects. When considering CO2 fertilisation effects, rice yield reductions induced by temperature increases were decreased at all sites. The CO2 fertilisation effects may partly offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. Adaptive option results revealed that the adverse impacts of climate change on rice yields could be mitigated by advancing the planting dates, transplanting mid–late-maturing rice cultivars to replace early-maturing ones, and breeding new rice cultivars with high thermal requirements. Our findings provide insight into the possible impacts of climate change on rice production, and we suggest which adaptive strategies could be used to cope with future climate change, thus providing evidence-based suggestions for government policy on adaptive strategies.
Additional keywords: adaptive options, CERES-Rice model, climate change impact, Northeast China, rice yield, simulation.
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