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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 60(12)

Improving estimates of water-limited yield of wheat by accounting for soil type and within-season rainfall

Y. M. Oliver A D , M. J. Robertson A , P. J. Stone B and A. Whitbread C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Private Bag 5 PO, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia.

B CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia.

C CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, PMB 2, Glen Osmond, SA 5064, Australia.

D Corresponding author. Email: Yvette.Oliver@csiro.au

Crop and Pasture Science 60(12) 1137-1146 https://doi.org/10.1071/CP09122
Submitted: 17 April 2009  Accepted: 13 August 2009   Published: 23 November 2009

Abstract

Rainfall is the main driver of potential yield in the dryland cropping environment of Australia. Rainfall-based empirically derived models such as that proposed by French and Schultz (1984) (F&S) can be used to determine an upper limit of water-limited potential yield, but F&S often overestimates actual yield as it does not account for rainfall distribution, runoff, drainage, or stored soil water. More complex models are available to predict potential yield more accurately; however, farmers and advisors favour easy-to-use-methods to estimate potential yield.

To derive a simple yet accurate method for estimating potential yield, several adjustments to F&S were evaluated: (1) accounting for stored soil water at sowing, (2) varying the value of the intercept between yield and growing-season rainfall (GSR), (3) varying the water-use efficiency of the crops (WUE) according to soil type, and (4) adjustments to GSR depending on soil plant-available water capacity (PAWC). The water-limited potential yields predicted from these methods were compared with simulations from the daily time-step simulation model APSIM and observed wheat yields from 146 dryland wheat crops, managed to water-limited potential yield, covering the 1996–2006 seasons in the Mediterranean-type growing environments of Australia.

The original F&S method overestimated actual yields, particularly at high rainfall (GSR > 220 mm) when PAWC was low, and underestimated yields at low rainfall (GSR < 220 mm). Significant improvements to the F&S were achieved with a few simple adjustments. With the addition of a variable intercept (dependent upon GSR), accounting for stored soil water at the start of the season and placing a cap on GSR that is a function of the soil PAWC, the predictive performance (RMSE 624 kg/ha) was similar to that gained with the daily time-step model APSIM (RMSE 419 kg/ha). The improved method gave more realistic estimates of water-limited potential yield, particularly at low and high rainfall and on soils of low PAWC.

Additional keywords: potential yield, plant-available water capacity, model, water-use efficiency, APSIM.


Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the GRDC for supporting this work as part of its Precision Agriculture SIP 09 initiative, Nutrient Management Initiative, and Subsoil constraints SIP08 initiative. Thanks to the farmers and advisors who allowed us to measure their commercial crops. Thanks to Mr David Hall from DAFWA for his yield and soil data from the Esperance region. Thanks to Dr John Kirkegaard and Dr Meredith Fairbanks for their useful comments on the manuscript.


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