Changing Australian vegetation from 1788 to 1988: effects of CO2 and land-use change

Sandra L. Berry; Michael L. Roderick

doi:10.1071/BT05138

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Next Contents Vol 54(4)

Changing Australian vegetation from 1788 to 1988: effects of CO₂ and land-use change

Sandra L. Berry ^A ^B and Michael L. Roderick ^A

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Ecosystem Dynamics Group and CRC for Greenhouse Accounting, Research School of Biological Sciences, Institute of Advanced Studies, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.

^B Corresponding author. Present address: School of Resources, Environment and Society, ANU College of Science, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Email: sandy.berry@anu.edu.au

Australian Journal of Botany 54(4) 325-338 https://doi.org/10.1071/BT05138
Submitted: 4 August 2005 Accepted: 21 November 2005 Published: 22 June 2006

Abstract

We present a tractable and transparent approach (the TMSC model) to estimating the total stock of carbon (roots, stems and leaves) in living vegetation (C _living), from gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates. The TMSC model utilises the TMS scheme of canopy functional types and a generic allometric scheme to derive these estimates. Model estimates are presented for the Australian continent under the following three vegetation–[CO₂] scenarios: the present (1988) vegetation and a hypothetical natural (1988) vegetation cover with atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) of 350 µmol mol^–1 (pveg350 and nveg350), and the natural vegetation (1788) having [CO₂] of 280 µmol mol^–1 (nveg280). The change between the nveg280 and pveg350 scenarios represents the combined effects of changes in land use and CO₂. The change resulting from CO₂ alone is the difference between the nveg280 and nveg350 scenarios. The estimated C _living for the continent is 21 Gt for pveg350, 23 Gt for nveg350 and 10 Gt for nveg280. This translates to an averaged rate of increase in C _living (CSI) of about 50 Tg C year^–1 over the last 200 years for the continent. Where wooded areas have been extensively cleared for agriculture, the CSI is negative (down to –4 g C m^–2 year^–1). Elsewhere, the CSI over the last 200 years ranges from ~55 g C m^–2 year^–1 in the tropical and subtropical forests to ~0 g C m^–2 year^–1 in the most arid regions.

Acknowledgments

Thanks go to Bill Burrows and Madonna Hoffmann of the Department of Primary Industries, Rockhampton, Australia, for making available their TRAPS grazed woodland data. We also thank the anonymous reviewers, Roger Gifford and Stephen Roxburgh for their very constructive comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript, and Stephen Roxburgh, Tom Buckley and Belinda Barnes for useful discussions on the nature of carbon stocks and fluxes.

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Appendix 1. The relationship between the NNCI and NPP

Appendix 2. Validation of model estimates

These Appendices, and associated tables and figures, are available as accessory publications on the web. Please go to the issue contents page www.publish.csiro/nid/66/issue/1416.htm, and click on the Appendix links.