Goat meat supply and demand in Vietnam: global context and opportunities and risks for smallholder producers

Key livestock species – numbers and distribution

FAOSTAT data show that goats are one of the largest and fastest-growing livestock populations on earth. In 2020, their global population was approximately 1128 million head (FAOSTAT 2022). This was five times greater than that for buffalo (204 million), similar to pigs and sheep (953 million and 1263 million respectively), 30% smaller than that for cattle (1525.9 million), and a fraction of the chicken population (33.1 billion; FAOSTAT 2022). From 2010 to 2020, the global goat population experienced the sharpest growth, increasing by 29.0% (Fig. 1). This was followed by chickens (23.3%), sheep (20.7%), cattle (11.4%) and buffalo (4.9%). Pigs decreased by 2.0%, owing to the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak. The goat population is concentrated in Asia (51.4%) and Africa (43.3%). In 2020, only 3.5% of goats were in the Americas, 1.4% were in Europe and 0.4% were in Oceania (includes Australia). Of Asia’s 579 million goats (2020), most were in southern Asia (56.3%) and eastern Asia (28.6%). Only 6.5% were in Southeast Asia where Vietnam is located.

Fig. 1.

Total global number of livestock per species from 2010 to 2020. Data from FAOSTAT (2022).

Trade in goats and goat meat

Live goats

From 2016 to 2020, live goats were predominantly exported from eastern Africa and southern Asia, with 2.1 and 1.1 million head being exported annually respectively. Both regions are adjacent to western Asia (includes the Middle East), which is the largest importer of live goats and sheep, at an average of 3.6 and 9.7 million head annually respectively (Fig. 2). Western Asia was also a main importer of live cattle, presumably because of their requirement of live animals in Halal slaughter for their large Islamic population, and because of increasing water-scarcity in the Middle East, which is reducing the feasibility of rearing livestock (Michaelson 2020). Live cattle were predominantly exported by western Europe and South America. Live-pig trade predominantly occurred within western Europe, and buffalo trade occurred predominantly within Southeast Asia. Hence, geographic location, production constraints and religious practices may contribute to the patterns of live-animal trade.

Fig. 2.

Average number of live imports and exports of key livestock species from 2016 to 2020 by region. Data from FAOSTAT (2022).

Fresh, chilled and frozen goat meat

Live animal-trade patterns differ from meat-trade patterns. Australia is the largest exporter of goat meat in the world (Fig. 3), exporting, on average, 22,070 Mg annually, predominantly to the United States of America (USA; Meat & Livestock Australia 2023). The main importers of goat meat are the USA and the United Arab Emirates (UAE; Fig. 4), which import an average 16,296 and 15,612 Mg annually. Australia is also the largest exporter of sheep meat, exporting on average 448,298 Mg annually. The USA is the largest exporter of pork (1.3 million Mg annually) and the second-largest exporter of chicken meat (3.3 million Mg annually). Brazil is the largest exporter of cattle meat at a mean 1374 Mg annually, and India is the largest exporter of buffalo meat (1145 Mg annually). China is either the largest importer, or in the top three, for beef, chicken, sheep and pork. Although the global population of goat is comparable to sheep and pigs (Fig. 2), their volume of trade is considerably lower (Figs 2–4). This suggests a greater volume of unofficial trade of goat, and/or increased prevalence of domestic consumption, compared with sheep.

Fig. 3.

Average quantity of meat exports from 2016 to 2020 of the top-five importing countries. Data from FAOSTAT (2022).

Fig. 4.

Average quantity of meat imports from 2016 to 2020 of the top-five importing countries. Data from FAOSTAT (2022).

The role of goats in rural development

There is a rising demand for animal-sourced protein (ASP) in countries such as China and Vietnam (Hansen 2018; Zhang et al. 2018). The growing urban and middle class have an increasing preference for high-quality ASP products (OECD/FAO 2020). This represents a demand for grass-fed livestock, which can be supplied by rural populations. The production of small livestock such as goats is recognised as an entry point for the most disadvantaged people to improve their livelihoods (IFAD 2021).

Goats will play a leading role in meeting the growing ASP demand. In 2011, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimated that the consumption of sheep and goat meat would increase by 88% globally from the year 2000 to 2030 (FAO 2011). This rate is higher than for beef (81%) and pork (66%), but lower than for poultry (170%; FAO 2011). The higher prevalence of diseases in pigs, including erysipelas, classical swine fever, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD; Holt et al. 2019), and, more recently, ASF (OIE 2019), has reduced the viability of pig production by smallholders, as has the cost of compounded feed and the low value of pig meat compared to red meat. Pig production is likely to transition towards medium- to large-scale production, because they are more capable of maintaining biosecurity standards (Woonwong et al. 2020) and achieving sufficient economies of scale for inputs and outputs. In Vietnam, the replacement of pigs with goats has been observed on some smallholder farms because of the suitability of facilities for conversion to goats (Gray et al. 2019), with lower feed input costs but higher farm-gate prices per unit of bodyweight. ASF outbreaks in Asia led to compensatory grown in poultry and ruminant consumption (Woonwong et al. 2020). The price of sheep and goat meat was estimated to remain the highest by Year 2029 at approximately US$3926/Mg, followed by beef (US$3333–3472/Mg), poultry (US$1035–1980/Mg) and pig meat (US$1323–2048/Mg; OECD/FAO 2020). However, faster than expected post-drought herd rebuilds in Australia and New Zealand have led to unexpected oversupply and price reductions from mid-2022 (McCosker 2023), although high import demand from Asia is likely to help prices recover (OECD/FAO 2020). With the projected consumption growth, and suitability to rural households, goat production has a high potential of achieving rural development and nutrition security.

Demand

In Vietnam, goat and sheep meat consumption was 0.2% (186 g) of annual per capita meat consumption in 2021 (Meat & Livestock Australia 2021). Beef consumption was 2.8 kg (3%), fish was 49.3 kg (53%), pork was 27.0 kg (29%), and chicken was 14.0 kg (15%) per annum per capita (Meat & Livestock Australia 2021). The total annual meat consumption of 93 kg per capita, which is majority fish (Meat & Livestock Australia 2021), did not include dog and ‘wild meat’, which are common, but unquantified (Hansen 2018). Although these figures suggest that ruminant meat is a small component of the Vietnamese diet, these are viewed as superior meats with greater nutritional value, attracting higher retail price (Meat & Livestock Australia 2021). In Vietnam in 2023, beef retail price was approximately A$16.40–20.80/kg, pork retail price was A$7.50–8.30/kg, goat retail price was A$19.20–25.60/kg and chicken was approximately A$3.50–5.00/kg (V. D. Nguyen, pers. comm.). There are differences in retail price within the goat carcass. Boneless ribs attract the highest price at 360,000–400,000 VND/kg, followed by goat thighs at 300,000–350,000 VND/kg (Phuong 2024). Goat necks are cheaper at 220,000–250,000 VND/kg (Phuong 2024).

The meat scarcity that was endured by most Vietnamese during the Vietnam war years and prior to market reforms in 1986 (Hansen 2018) has been compensated for by Vietnam’s disproportionately high meat consumption relative to gross domestic product (GDP) today. Vietnam’s 2013 per capita meat consumption of 55.2 kg (not including 33 kg of seafood) was equal to that of Malaysia (56.2 kg), and higher than those of Indonesia (13.6 kg) and the Philippines (35.1 kg), despite having a GDP 78%, 47%, and 19% lower respectively, at the time (Hansen 2018). Hence, Vietnam has additional drivers of meat consumption that favour growth.

One of these drivers is the cultural view of meat consumption as a symbol of health, increased living standards and social status (Hansen 2018). It is perceived by consumers that ‘meat can be considered as something that higher income people can consume’ (Hansen 2018, p. 65), and there is a meat hierarchy. The consumption of beef steak, goat (including the reproductive organs) and endangered wild meat from wild pigs, deer, birds, lizards, water dragons and civets, are positively viewed as luxury foods, and their consumption provides greater social leverage in urban regions (Hansen 2018). They are commonly consumed by middle-class and educated men, in social gatherings with alcoholic drinks, as a means to communicate social status and masculinity (Sandalj et al. 2016). Hence, goat meat is positioned within the high-value market.

Consuming goat meat is also infiltrating mainstream meat consumption with what Hansen (2018) calls the ‘meatification’ of social practices in Asia. Vietnams’ rising household income is positively associated with Vietnam’s meat consumption (Phuong et al. 2014). The westernisation of the diets is leading to increased intensity of meat in traditional dishes, the increased consumption of foreign cuisines that contain more meat, and the increased frequency of eating out (Hansen 2018). This strongly favours goat consumption because goat meat is offered in many restaurants and it is predominantly eaten at restaurants (Gray et al. 2019; Bui et al. 2023). Most consumers (76%) in Ho Chi Minh City believe that goat meat is difficult to cook at home (Meat & Livestock Australia 2021). There are a growing number of specialised goat meat restaurants in Vietnam (Ørskov 2011), which are marketed to the expatriate and wealthier populations (Dubeuf 2014). Goat meat supply is also more hygienic, with consumers more commonly purchasing goat and sheep meet at supermarkets (67%), rather than street wet markets (54%; Meat & Livestock Australia 2021).

Goat demand is highest during the wedding season, the lead up to the Tet festival in January, and during winter (November to April) when goat is often used in hot-pot dishes (Gray et al. 2019). Vietnamese slaughterhouses generally prefer non-castrated male goats (Gray et al. 2019). Premiums are afforded to ‘grass goat’ or ‘mountain goat’. Grass goat (or Co goat) are a small native Vietnamese goat commonly found in remote low-land areas (Hung 1992; Le Thi et al. 2009; Norton et al. 2009). They have a mature bodyweight of 26 kg in females and 30 kg in males (Le Thi et al. 2009). They are the most common goats in Vietnam and are consumed for meat, having a low average annual milk yield of 50–60 kg per year (Le Thi et al. 2009). They are preferred over Bach Thao goats, which are a stabilised cross among exotic dairy breeds: Saanen, Alpine, Jamnapari and Beetal (Hung 1992; Norton et al. 2009). Bach Thao are predominantly reared in central coastal provinces and are dual-purpose, with a higher average annual milk yield of 220–250 kg per year (Le Thi et al. 2009). They have a higher mature bodyweight of 45 kg in females and 65 kg in males (Le Thi et al. 2009). Boer goat is increasingly present as a cross-breed in Southeast Asian and other goat-producing countries. Mountain goat refers to native goats raised extensively, and can be from Laos or Vietnam (Gray et al. 2019). They are indistinguishable in appearance from grass goats, but grass goats are allegedly raised in low-lands, whereas mountain goats are raised in mountainous areas (N. X. Ba, pers. comm.; Bui et al. 2023); however, it is unclear how this is verified. Some traditional dishes specifically require mountain goat to be authentic, and cannot be substituted with cross-breed goat meat (Hoang 2013). Both grass and mountain goats are preferred owing to an innate ‘clean’ and ‘green’ image, presumably matched by a milder flavour. It is unclear whether the positive image is more associated with the production systems and provenance or the native goat phenotype (Gray et al. 2019). Grass and mountain goat can receive a farm-gate price premium over Vietnamese Bach Thao and other cross breeds (Gray et al. 2019). Although there is no formal branding or certification of these attributes, the image and reputation are widespread. Clarity is needed on exactly how goats are distinguished, and on what merit the premiums awarded (Bui et al. 2023).

Through Vietnam’s rapid growth in supply of cheap, mass-produced meat, several serious food-safety scares have occurred in recent decades (Nguyen-Viet et al. 2017). This has increased the desirability of imported meats (Hansen 2018) and Vietnamese consumers will pay premiums for food with hygiene and safety images (Meat & Livestock Australia 2021). This is reflected by ‘country of origin’ being the number one attribute that Vietnamese consumers value when purchasing meat from supermarkets (Meat & Livestock Australia 2021). This has been facilitated by the opening of Vietnam’s market for imports, accelerated by Vietnam joining the World Trade Organization in 2007 (Hansen 2018). There is also demand for whole goat carcasses, which are displayed in Vietnamese restaurants (Fig. 5), appealing to the consumer as a guarantee of freshness. This preference favours the importation of live goats.

Fig. 5.

Whole goat carcass being prepared at a goat restaurant in Hue, Vietnam, 2021.

Supply

From 2010 to 2019, the total number of live goats in Vietnam increased by 103%, to 2.7 million head (Fig. 6). In the same period, the proxy developed by FAOSTAT (2022) for goat price in lieu of official data, ‘producer goat price index’, increased by 167%, indicating a high demand. This review paper calculated the total supply of goat meat and offal in Vietnam by summing the FAOSTAT (2022) estimate of Mg of goat meat and offal supplied in Vietnam with the number of live imported goats, and subtracting the number of exported goats, after both were multiplied by the average meat and offal per male carcass of 9 kg and 0.8 kg (Luc et al. 1992). This does not account for older, heavier carcases. This resulted in an estimated total supply of goat meat and offal of 23,286 Mg per year (Table 1). This is much higher than the FAO (2011) projection of 10,800 Mg of goat and sheep meat produced by 2030, suggesting faster than expected growth in goat supply, although numbers are limited to crude estimates. Meat & Livestock Australia (2021) estimated total annual sheep and goat meat consumption in Vietnam of 18,097 Mg (Table 1). These data suggest that strong demand is keeping farm-gate prices high, and is likely to do so into the future, which offers producers considerable opportunity and confidence to increase supply.

Fig. 6.

Average annual change over time in producer price index and number of goats reported in Laos and Vietnam. Data from FAOSTAT (2022). Note: FAO producer price indices measure average annual change over time in the selling prices received by farmers at the farm-gate or at the first point of sale. The indices are constructed using the Laspeyres formula with price data in local currency.

Goats supplying the Vietnamese market are predominantly produced in thousands of Vietnamese smallholder farms. They are characterised by extensive or semi-intensive management, small herds of 5–100 head, the farmer having a primary-level education, reliance on family labour, and small land holdings of 2–7 ha (Norton et al. 2009; Gray et al. 2019; Nguyen et al. 2021). Typically, a few thousand square metres of forages are cultivated as grazing land is scarce (Norton et al. 2009). However, free-grazing of native grass is still common and occurred for 7–8 h per day, and was supplementing the small quantities of low-quality feed in south-eastern Vietnam (Norton et al. 2009). Typically, only one breeding buck was retained per farm, which was the slowest-growing buck as faster-growing bucks were sold once they reached 25 kg at approximately 18 months of age (Norton et al. 2009). It is likely that this resulted in inbreeding and a lack of selective breeding, preventing genetic improvement. All females were retained for breeding, and does typically conceived at 8 months of age, gave birth at 14 months of age and milk supplies waned at 100 days post-parturition (Norton et al. 2009). Typical productivity constraints included moderate annual mortality (10%) caused by endemic diseases, unavailability of disease prevention and treatment options and knowledge, poor nutrition and a lack of reproductive management, resulting in an annual turn-off rate of 17.8% (Norton et al. 2009). Although the Vietnamese Government has been actively promoting goats as a tool for rural development since 1993 (Norton et al. 2009), the goat population remains almost 1 million head below Vietnamese government targets (Nguyen et al. 2021), indicating supply constraints.

An average of 6037 live goats per year were officially imported to Vietnam between 2016 and 2020, mainly from France (55.0%; FAOSTAT 2024). However, it is proposed that the greatest number of imported goats to Vietnam occurs unofficially and originates from Laos. Because of the unofficial nature of this trade, estimated volume of goat imports varies tremendously. Goats depart Laos for Vietnam via the following three export market chains: (1) the north-eastern corridor via Houaphanh province, (2) the northern corridor via Xiengkhouang province, and (3) the southern corridor via Savannakhet province (Phengsavanh et al. 2017). From Savannakhet province where research has occurred, estimated numbers of goats traded annually to Vietnam range anywhere from 1500 head to 109,500 head, as reported by Lao authorities, Vietnamese authorities, slaughterhouses and traders (Gray et al. 2019). A survey by Hoang et al. (2017) suggested 30,000 head per year through the southern corridor, as an overall estimate. The official southern corridor transit point is the Lao–Bao border crossing, but unofficial, nearby routes are used because there is no official goat trade agreement between Laos and Vietnam. Because Lao goats have been reported to receive farm-gate price premiums over cross-bred Vietnamese goats of 30–45% (Hoang 2013; Gray et al. 2019), and there is no traceability, supply chain actors could falsify native Vietnamese goats as goat stock originating from Laos, to increase profit.

How goats are traded in Vietnamese goat value chains

Goat value chains in Vietnam consist mainly of smallholder goat farmers from Laos and Vietnam, middle-men (traders) who buy and sell goats, Vietnamese abattoir owners and Vietnamese restaurant owners, some of whom slaughter their own goats. These actors function as producers, traders, preliminary processors and distributers respectively (Nga et al. 2022). There is evidence of vertical linkages between supply chain actors, but limited horizontal linkages among farmers or traders (Nga et al. 2022). Data on these supply chains are scarce.

Vietnam

Goat traders frequently visit Vietnamese smallholder goat farms, enabling ease of sale by farmers (Hoang et al. 2017). An unquantified proportion of traders add value to goats purchased at approximately 25 kg, by fattening them to market weight of approximately 28 kg (Norton et al. 2009). Some regions lack goat-specific abattoirs, so traders sell goats directly to restaurants where live goats are stored and slaughtered on demand (Norton et al. 2009). In most regions, goats abattoirs exist and traders sell directly to them, who on-sell to restaurants (Gray et al. 2019). It is believed that abattoirs have the greatest influence on goat prices within the value chain (Gray et al. 2019; Nga et al. 2022). Goats can be held in small paddocks owned by abattoirs and are slaughtered in the morning. They are sold to goat restaurants daily. This reflects the shorter shelf life of meat due to limited cold chain management, and enables a daily market equilibrium where abattoirs are strong influencers of price. There are many goat restaurants in Vietnam, with an estimated 1000 restaurants serving goat in Ninh Binh alone; a province of 1 million residents in northern Vietnam (Gray et al. 2019). In Ninh Binh, goat marketing is predominantly driven by restaurant owners through eye-catching advertisements for goat meat restaurants (Fig. 7).

Fig. 7.

Typical examples of roadside goat advertising around Ninh Binh. Dê Núi is ‘mountain goat’ and Thịt Dê is ‘goat meat’.

Laos

Lao middle-men travel deep into Laos to purchase live goats from smallholders, which they deliver to Vietnamese traders across the border (Hoang 2013). In 2017, middle-men were visiting villages, on average, 13 times per month to purchase goats (Phengsavanh et al. 2017), reflecting the strong demand. Approximately 90% of goats purchased by middle-men are exported to Vietnam and only 10% are sold to domestic markets (Gray et al. 2019). The advantage of the domestic market is that goats can be sold in poorer body condition, but the demand is lower, with only 30–40 restaurants serving goat meat in the capital city, plus 2–4 small restaurants per large provincial town, each slaughtering one or two goats per day (Gray et al. 2019). Sales to Vietnam require health certificates, an animal trading license, and trading and export fees, which collectively cost between A$6.00 and A$11.40 per goat to cross the border (Gray et al. 2019). All or part of these fees may be avoided by illegal movement of goats across the border. There are no goat slaughterhouses in Laos, with goats being processed directly at restaurants. There are no formal contracts among or between traders and farmers, or traceability (Nga et al. 2022).