Seasonal trends and variability of soil moisture under temperate pasture on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales

Abstract

A water balance model predicting changes in soil moisture under temperate pasture at Armidale, New South Wales was developed and tested against soil moisture measurements made from 1967 to 1969. The model accounted for 96 per cent of the variance in observed soil moisture. The model was then used to predict the expected pattern of soil moisture for this area using daily Armidale rainfall data from 1878 to 1973 and pan evaporation data from 1951 to 1970. Expected soil moisture levels rise to a maximum in late winter and then progressively decline to a minimum in mid summer. Levels may increase again slightly during late summer but remain low through autumn before beginning to rise again during winter. On the basis of this analysis it is suggested that the safest time to establish new plant species into temperate pasture is probably early winter when expected soil moisture begins to rise rapidly. Because of the autumn deficiency in soil moisture it was concluded that fodder oats grown in this period would often be inhibited by a lack of soil moisture unless preceded by a fallow to conserve late summer rainfall. The need for soil moisture data in interpreting and extrapolating from field experiments is stressed.