A population viability analysis of K’gari (Fraser Island) wongari (dingoes)

Robert Appleby; Bradley P. Smith; Darryl Jones; Gabriel Conroy; Linda Behrendorff

doi:10.1071/AM23009

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

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A population viability analysis of K’gari (Fraser Island) wongari (dingoes)

Robert Appleby ^A ^* , Bradley P. Smith

^B , Darryl Jones ^A , Gabriel Conroy ^C and Linda Behrendorff ^D

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Centre for Planetary Health and Food Security, Griffith University, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia.

^B School of Health, Medical and Applied Sciences, Central Queensland University, Adelaide, SA 5034, Australia.

^C GeneCology Research Centre, Faculty of Science, Health, Engineering, and Education, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Qld 4558, Australia.

^D School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Gatton, Qld 4343, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: rob.appleby@wildspy.com.au

Handling Editor: Stuart Cairns

Australian Mammalogy 47, AM23009 https://doi.org/10.1071/AM23009

Submitted: 14 March 2023 Accepted: 15 January 2025 Published: 20 February 2025

© 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Australian Mammal Society. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Small, isolated populations such as those found on islands are at an increased risk of extinction. This includes K’gari (Fraser Island) wongari (dingoes). Although aspects of wongari ecology and behaviour are well documented, much about population dynamics remains uncertain. Even where relevant research has been conducted (e.g. population abundance), results remain equivocal. We conducted a population viability analysis (PVA) to investigate the influence of different abundance estimates, along with variable rates of mortality, carrying capacity, catastrophes and breeding success on extinction probability. In favourable, undisturbed conditions, modelling showed a high probability of population persistence over 50 and 100 years. Consistently high levels of mortality resulted in increased extinction probabilities, especially at low- and mid-level population sizes. Promiscuous breeding behaviour, higher female breeding success, and higher male availability reduced extinction probabilities. Our approach demonstrated the utility of population viability analysis for identifying important factors that meaningfully contribute to wongari extinction risk. However, inferences and actionable recommendations for managers were limited owing to a paucity of information for certain, critical parameters. Our findings highlighted the need for better data on wongari reproduction and mortality to help fill significant knowledge gaps required to accurately predict the long-term survival of this iconic population.

Keywords: abundance, breeding, canidae, catastrophes, conservation, extinction, mortality, survival.

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