Contrasting effects of climate on grey heron, malleefowl and barn owl populations
Maria Boyle A and Jim Hone A B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
B Corresponding author. Email: Jim.Hone@canberra.edu.au
Wildlife Research 39(1) 7-14 https://doi.org/10.1071/WR10233
Submitted: 17 December 2010 Accepted: 6 October 2011 Published: 21 December 2011
Abstract
Context: The population dynamics of many wildlife species are associated with fluctuations in climate. Food and abundance may also influence wildlife dynamics.
Aims: The present paper aims to evaluate the relative effects of climate on the annual instantaneous population growth rate (r) of the following three bird species: grey heron and barn owl in parts of Britain and malleefowl in a part of Australia.
Methods: A priori hypotheses of mechanistic effects of climate are derived and evaluated using information theoretic and regression analyses and published data for the three bird species. Climate was measured as the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for herons and owls, and rainfall and also the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for malleefowl.
Key results: Population dynamics of grey heron were positively related to the winter NAO, and of malleefowl were positively related to annual rainfall and related in a non-linear manner to SOI. By contrast, population dynamics of barn owl were very weakly related to climate. The best models for the grey heron differed between time periods but always included an effect of the NAO.
Conclusions: The annual population growth rate of grey heron, malleefowl and barn owl show contrasting relationships with climate, from stronger (heron and malleefowl) to weaker (barn owl). The results were broadly consistent with reported patterns but differed in some details. Interpretation of the effects of climate on the basis of analyses rather than visual assessment is encouraged.
Implications: Effects of climate differ among species, so effects of future climate change may also differ.
Additional keywords: barn owl, grey heron, malleefowl, numerical response, wildlife population dynamics.
References
Anderson, D. R. (2008). ‘Model Based Inference in the Life Sciences. A Primer on Evidence.’ (Springer: Berlin.)Andrewartha, H., and Birch, L. C. (1954). ‘The Distribution and Abundance of Animals.’ (Chicago University Press: Chicago, IL.)
Begon, M., Townsend, C. R., and Harper, J. L. (2006). ‘Ecology: From Individuals to Ecosystems.’ 4th edn. (Blackwell Publishing: Oxford, UK.)
Berryman, A. A., Gutierrez, A. P., and Arditi, R. (1995). Credible, parsimonious and useful predator–prey models – a reply to Abrams, Gleeson and Sarnelle. Ecology 76, 1980–1985.
| Credible, parsimonious and useful predator–prey models – a reply to Abrams, Gleeson and Sarnelle.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Besbeas, P., Freeman, S. N., Morgan, B. J. T., and Catchpole, E. A. (2002). Integrating mark–recapture–recovery and census data to estimate animal abundance and demographic parameters. Biometrics 58, 540–547.
| Integrating mark–recapture–recovery and census data to estimate animal abundance and demographic parameters.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:STN:280:DC%2BD38vmvF2mug%3D%3D&md5=67c4f6ebea6dbf0301c8bb1aabc98dd5CAS |
Burnham, K. P., and Anderson, D. R. (2001). Kullback-Leibler information as basis for strong inference in ecological studies. Wildlife Research 28, 111–119.
| Kullback-Leibler information as basis for strong inference in ecological studies.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Caughley, G., and Sinclair, A. R. E. (1994). ‘Wildlife Ecology and Management.’ (Blackwell Scientific Publications: Oxford, UK.)
Caughley, J., Bayliss, P., and Giles, J. (1984). Trends in kangaroo numbers in western New South Wales and their relation to rainfall. Australian Wildlife Research 11, 415–422.
| Trends in kangaroo numbers in western New South Wales and their relation to rainfall.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Caughley, G., Shepherd, N., and Short, J. (1987). ‘Kangaroos. Their Ecology and Management in the Sheep Rangelands of Australia.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.)
Chamberlin, T. (1965). The method of multiple working hypotheses. Science 148, 754–759.
| 1:STN:280:DC%2BC3cvgtFOmug%3D%3D&md5=6ffaeb61b9c5891a6b1b85c64bdb5997CAS |
Coulson, T., Rohani, P., and Pascual, M. (2004). Skeletons, noise and population growth: the end of an old debate? Trends in Ecology & Evolution 19, 359–364.
| Skeletons, noise and population growth: the end of an old debate?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Frith, H. J. (1962). ‘The Mallee-fowl: the Bird that Builds an Incubator.’ (Angus and Robertson: Sydney.)
Hone, J., and Clutton-Brock, T. H. (2007). Climate, food, density and wildlife population growth rate. Journal of Animal Ecology 76, 361–367.
| Climate, food, density and wildlife population growth rate.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hone, J., and Sibly, R. M. (2002). Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences 357, 1171–1177.
| Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hone, J., Krebs, C. J., and O’Donoghue, M. (2011). Is the relationship between predator and prey abundances related to climate for lynx and snowshoe hares? Wildlife Research 38, 419–425.
| Is the relationship between predator and prey abundances related to climate for lynx and snowshoe hares?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hurrell, J. W. (1995). Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269, 676–679.
| Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DyaK2MXntlCltrk%3D&md5=464692e9d441cb4327d72451136990c3CAS |
Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Visbeck, M., and Ottersen, G. (2003). An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation: climate significance and environmental impact. Geophysical Monograph Series 134, 1–35.
| An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation: climate significance and environmental impact.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Johnson, J. B., and Omland, K. S. (2004). Model selection in ecology and evolution. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 19, 101–108.
| Model selection in ecology and evolution.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Knape, J., and de Valpine, P. (2011). Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B. Biological Sciences 278, 985–992.
| Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lack, D. (1954). ‘The Natural Regulation of Animal Numbers.’ (Oxford University Press: New York.)
Lande, R., Engen, S., and Saether, B. E. (2002). Estimating density dependence in time-series of age-structured populations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences 357, 1179–1184.
| Estimating density dependence in time-series of age-structured populations.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:STN:280:DC%2BD38nktFWmsA%3D%3D&md5=b5a16771abc2d04a83a474d53227b726CAS |
May, R. M. (1974). ‘Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems.’ (Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ.)
May, R. M. (1981). Models for two interacting populations. In ‘Theoretical Ecology. Principles and Applications. 2nd edn. (Ed. R. M. May.) pp. 78–104. (Blackwell: Oxford, UK.)
Newton, I. (1998). ‘Population Limitation in Birds.’ (Academic Press: London.)
North, P. M., and Morgan, B. J. T. (1979). Modelling heron survival using weather data. Biometrics 35, 667–681.
| Modelling heron survival using weather data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Priddel, D., and Wheeler, R. (1996). Effects of age at release on the susceptibility of captive-reared malleefowl Leipoa ocellata to predation by the introduced fox Vulpes vulpes. Emu 96, 32–41.
| Effects of age at release on the susceptibility of captive-reared malleefowl Leipoa ocellata to predation by the introduced fox Vulpes vulpes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Priddel, D., and Wheeler, R. (2003). Nesting activity and demography of an isolated population of malleefowl (Leipoa ocellata). Wildlife Research 30, 451–464.
| Nesting activity and demography of an isolated population of malleefowl (Leipoa ocellata).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Putman, R. J., and Wratten, S. D. (1984). ‘Principles of Ecology.’ (Croom Helm: London.)
Sæther, B. E., Engen, S., Møller, A. P., Matthysen, E., Adriansen, F., Fiedler, W., Leivits, A., Lambrechts, M. M., Visser, M. E., Anker-Nilssen, T., Both, C., Dhondt, A. A., McCleery, R. H., McMeeking, J., Potti, J., Røstad, O. W., and Thomson, D. (2003). Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B. Biological Sciences 270, 2397–2404.
Sibly, R. M., and Hone, J. (2002). Population growth rate and its determinants. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences 357, 1153–1170.
| Population growth rate and its determinants.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stafford, J. (1971). The heron population of England and Wales 1928–1970. Bird Study 18, 218–221.
| The heron population of England and Wales 1928–1970.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stenseth, N. C., Ottersen, G., Hurrell, J. W., Mysterud, A., Lima, M., Chan, K. S., Yoccoz, N. G., and Ådlandsvik, B. (2003). Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and beyond. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B. Biological Sciences 270, 2087–2096.
| Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and beyond.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Taylor, I. (1994). ‘Barn Owls. Predator–Prey Relationships and Conservation.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.)
