Modelling current parna distribution in a local area

Abstract

Parna is a wind-blown clay, mobilised from inland Australia as the result of a series of intermittent high wind events during the Quaternary. Parna can be recognised on the basis of colour, texture, distributional patterns, and pedology. Parna deposits have been recorded across a wide area of south eastern Australia and have influenced the local pedology and hydrology. In some cases parna has increased soil sodicity and the potential for dryland salinisation. Predicting its spatial distribution is useful when considering agricultural potential and in assessing the risk and spatial spread of dryland salinity. Here we present the results of modelling to predict its local distribution in an area covering 291 km² in the Young district of NSW. Two conceptual models of parna deposition and subsequent redistribution were used to develop a current parna distribution map: (a) deposition = f(topography, aspect) after assuming that interactions of rainfall, vegetation, and wind speed were relatively the same at the local scale; (b) removal or retention = f (slope angle, catchment size, slope length) as a representation of the erosive energy of gravity. Five landscape variables, elevation, aspect, slope, flow accumulation, and flow length, were derived from a 20 m digital elevation model (DEM). A training set of parna deposits was established using air photos and field survey from limited exposures in the Young district of NSW. These areas were digitised and converted to a grid of areas of parna and no-parna. This training set for parna and the 5 landscape variable grids were processed in the IDRISI for WINDOWS Geographic Information System (GIS). Spatial relationships between the parna and no-parna deposits and the 5 landscape variables were extracted from this training set. This information was imported into an inductive learning program called KnowledgeSEEKER. A decision tree was built by recursive partitioning of the data set using Chi-squares to categorise variables, and an F test for continuous variables to best replicate the training data classification of ‘parna’ and ‘no-parna’. The rules derived from this process were applied to the study area to predict the occurrence of parna in the broader landscape. Predictions were field checked and the rules adjusted until they best represented the occurrence of parna in the field. The final model showed predictions of parna deposits as follows: (i) higher elevations in the Young landscape were the dominant sites of parna deposits; (ii) thicker deposits of parna occurred on the windward south-west and north-west; (iii) thinner deposits occurred on the leeward side of a central ridge feature; (iv) because the training set concentrated around the major central ridge feature, poorer predictions were obtained on gently undulating country.