Potential soil organic carbon stock and its uncertainty under various cropping systems in Australian cropland
Zhongkui Luo A , Enli Wang A C , Jeff Baldock B and Hongtao Xing A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A CSIRO Land and Water/Sustainable Agricultural Flagship, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
B CSIRO Land and Water/Sustainable Agricultural Flagship, APMB 2, Glen Osmond, SA 5064, Australia.
C Corresponding author. Email: enli.wang@csiro.au
Soil Research 52(5) 463-475 https://doi.org/10.1071/SR13294
Submitted: 8 October 2013 Accepted: 5 March 2014 Published: 26 June 2014
Abstract
The diversity of cropping systems and its variation could lead to great uncertainty in the estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock across time and space. Using the pre-validated Agricultural Production Systems Simulator, we simulated the long-term (1022 years) SOC dynamics in the top 0.3 m of soil at 613 reference sites under 59 representative cropping systems across Australia’s cereal-growing regions. The point simulation results were upscaled to the entire cereal-growing region using a Monte Carlo approach to quantify the spatial pattern of SOC stock and its uncertainty caused by cropping system and environment. The predicted potential SOC stocks at equilibrium state ranged from 10 to 140 t ha–1, with the majority in a range 30–70 t ha–1, averaged across all the representative cropping systems. Cropping system accounted for ~10% of the total variance in predicted SOC stocks. The type of cropping system that determined the carbon input into soil had significant effects on SOC sequestration potential. On average, the potential SOC stock in the top 0.3 m of soil was 30, 50 and 60 t ha–1 under low-, medium- and high-input cropping systems in terms of carbon input, corresponding to –2, 18 and 26 t ha–1 of SOC change. Across the entire region, the Monte Carlo simulations showed that the potential SOC stock was 51 t ha–1, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 38 to 64 t ha–1 under the identified representative cropping systems. Overall, predicted SOC stock could increase by 0.99 Pg in Australian cropland under the identified representative cropping systems with optimal management. Uncertainty varied depending on cropping system, climate and soil conditions. Detailed information on cropping system and soil and climate characteristics is needed to obtain reliable estimates of potential SOC stock at regional scale, particularly in cooler and/or wetter regions.
Additional keywords: APSIM, carbon sequestration, crop rotation, meta-model, Monte Carlo simulation, regional scale, upscaling.
References
Álvaro-Fuentes J, Lopez MV, Arrue JL, Moret D, Paustian K (2009) Tillage and cropping effects on soil organic carbon in Mediterranean semiarid agroecosystems: Testing the Century model. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 134, 211–217.| Tillage and cropping effects on soil organic carbon in Mediterranean semiarid agroecosystems: Testing the Century model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Chan KY, Oates A, Li GD, Conyers MK, Prangnell RJ, Poile G, Liu DL, Barchia IM (2010) Soil carbon stocks under different pastures and pasture management in the higher rainfall areas of south-eastern Australia. Soil Research 48, 7–15.
| Soil carbon stocks under different pastures and pasture management in the higher rainfall areas of south-eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXisVCgtbc%3D&md5=d4dd972a07c21dbf378cbab7ded2df8aCAS |
Chan KY, Conyers MK, Li GD, Helyar KR, Poile G, Oates A, Barchia IM (2011) Soil carbon dynamics under different cropping and pasture management in temperate Australia: Results of three long-term experiments. Soil Research 49, 320–328.
| Soil carbon dynamics under different cropping and pasture management in temperate Australia: Results of three long-term experiments.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Dalal RC, Chan KY (2001) Soil organic matter in rainfed cropping systems of the Australian cereal belt. Australian Journal of Soil Research 39, 435–464.
| Soil organic matter in rainfed cropping systems of the Australian cereal belt.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3MXks1Kqt7c%3D&md5=eeba3a6a14a681bd35a0ce34e70667a6CAS |
Drinkwater LE, Wagoner P, Sarrantonio M (1998) Legume-based cropping systems have reduced carbon and nitrogen losses. Nature 396, 262–265.
| Legume-based cropping systems have reduced carbon and nitrogen losses.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DyaK1cXns12lu7s%3D&md5=341f2a9c1a403a89e776c27901e4868aCAS |
Franzluebbers AJ, Hubbs MD, Norfleet ML (2012) Evaluating soil organic carbon sequestration potential in the Cotton Belt with the soil conditioning index. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 67, 378–389.
| Evaluating soil organic carbon sequestration potential in the Cotton Belt with the soil conditioning index.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Gaiser T, Abdel-Razek M, Bakara H (2009) Modeling carbon sequestration under zero-tillage at the regional scale. II. The influence of crop rotation and soil type. Ecological Modelling 220, 3372–3379.
| Modeling carbon sequestration under zero-tillage at the regional scale. II. The influence of crop rotation and soil type.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1MXhtlKjtrzK&md5=ce07ebf63d2d7539334abc74936e9e23CAS |
Goidts E, Wesemael Ba SC, Van Oost K (2009) Driving forces of soil organic carbon evolution at the landscape and regional scale using data from a stratified soil monitoring. Global Change Biology 15, 2981–3000.
| Driving forces of soil organic carbon evolution at the landscape and regional scale using data from a stratified soil monitoring.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Grace P, Colunga-Garcia M, Gage S, Robertson GP, Safir G (2006) The potential impact of agricultural management and climate change on soil organic carbon of the north central region of the United States. Ecosystems 9, 816–827.
| The potential impact of agricultural management and climate change on soil organic carbon of the north central region of the United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD28XhtVWgtLnK&md5=cf5fc4f86229be8646f56867a2b54652CAS |
Grace PR, Antle J, Ogle S, Paustian K, Basso B (2010) Soil carbon sequestration rates and associated economic costs for farming systems of south-eastern Australia. Australian Journal of Soil Research 48, 720–729.
| Soil carbon sequestration rates and associated economic costs for farming systems of south-eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Grace PR, Antle J, Aggarwal PK, Ogle S, Paustian K, Basso B (2012) Soil carbon sequestration and associated economic costs for farming systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plain: A meta-analysis. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 146, 137–146.
| Soil carbon sequestration and associated economic costs for farming systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plain: A meta-analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hessen DO, Ågren GI, Anderson TR, Elser JJ, de Ruiter PC (2004) Carbon sequestration in ecosystems: The role of stoichiometry. Ecology 85, 1179–1192.
| Carbon sequestration in ecosystems: The role of stoichiometry.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Huth NI, Thorburn PJ, Radford BJ, Thornton CM (2010) Impacts of fertilisers and legumes on N2O and CO2 emissions from soils in subtropical agricultural systems: A simulation study. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 136, 351–357.
| Impacts of fertilisers and legumes on N2O and CO2 emissions from soils in subtropical agricultural systems: A simulation study.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXisFenurk%3D&md5=09021c41d5d8201baed1d33017f3334aCAS |
IPCC (2003) Good practice guidance for land use, land-use change and Forestry. IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at: www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf.html
Keating BA, Carberry PS, Hammer GL, Probert ME, Robertson MJ, Holzworth D, Huth NI, Hargreaves JNG, Meinke H, Hochman Z, McLean G, Verburg K, Snow V, Dimes JP, Silburn M, Wang E, Brown S, Bristow KL, Asseng S, Chapman S, McCown RL, Freebairn DM, Smith CJ (2003) An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation. European Journal of Agronomy 18, 267–288.
| An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kirkby CA, Richardson AE, Wade LJ, Batten GD, Blanchard C, Kirkegaard JA (2013) Carbon-nutrient stoichiometry to increase soil carbon sequestration. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 60, 77–86.
| Carbon-nutrient stoichiometry to increase soil carbon sequestration.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3sXktlKrt7k%3D&md5=b6e3d80e2e218c0165fc218533f39fcaCAS |
Kou TJ, Zhu P, Huang S, Peng XX, Song ZW, Deng AX, Gao HJ, Peng C, Zhang WJ (2012) Effects of long-term cropping regimes on soil carbon sequestration and aggregate composition in rainfed farmland of Northeast China. Soil & Tillage Research 118, 132–138.
| Effects of long-term cropping regimes on soil carbon sequestration and aggregate composition in rainfed farmland of Northeast China.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lal R (2004) Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security. Science 304, 1623–1627.
| Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXks1Cgsrk%3D&md5=f8375f1b98c443063cf0fb72b7e74d31CAS | 15192216PubMed |
Luo Z, Wang E, Sun OJ (2010) Soil carbon change and its responses to agricultural practices in Australian agro-ecosystems: A review and synthesis. Geoderma 155, 211–223.
| Soil carbon change and its responses to agricultural practices in Australian agro-ecosystems: A review and synthesis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXitlWgtb0%3D&md5=bc26fd4cab6a6dc5b9a4470cad3cd7c1CAS |
Luo Z, Wang E, Sun OJ, Smith CJ, Probert ME (2011) Modeling long-term soil carbon dynamics and sequestration potential in semi-arid agro-ecosystems. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151, 1529–1544.
| Modeling long-term soil carbon dynamics and sequestration potential in semi-arid agro-ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Luo Z, Wang E, Bryan BA, King D, Zhao G, Pan X, Bende-Michl U (2013) Meta-modeling soil organic carbon sequestration potential and its application at regional scale. Ecological Applications 23, 408–420.
| Meta-modeling soil organic carbon sequestration potential and its application at regional scale.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23634591PubMed |
Ogle SM, Breidt FJ, Easter M, Williams S, Killian K, Paustian K (2010) Scale and uncertainty in modeled soil organic carbon stock changes for US croplands using a process-based model. Global Change Biology 16, 810–822.
| Scale and uncertainty in modeled soil organic carbon stock changes for US croplands using a process-based model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Probert ME, Dimes JP, Keating BA, Dalal RC, Strong WM (1998) APSIM’s water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems. Agricultural Systems 56, 1–28.
| APSIM’s water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Probert ME, Delve RJ, Kimani SK, Dimes JP (2005) Modelling nitrogen mineralization from manures: representing quality aspects by varying C : N ratio of sub-pools. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 37, 279–287.
| Modelling nitrogen mineralization from manures: representing quality aspects by varying C : N ratio of sub-pools.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2cXhtVahu7%2FN&md5=8e174e010ed9b4ef5607790e9dfafa02CAS |
R Core Team (2012) ‘R: a language and environment for statistical computing.’ (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria)
Sainju UM, Lenssen AW (2011) Dryland soil carbon dynamics under alfalfa and durum-forage cropping sequences. Soil & Tillage Research 113, 30–37.
| Dryland soil carbon dynamics under alfalfa and durum-forage cropping sequences.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Sanderman J, Farquharson RJ, Baldock J (2010) Soil carbon sequestration potential: A review for Australian agriculture. A report prepared for Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Australian Government. CSIRO Land and Water.
Schulze ED, Ciais P, Luyssaert S, Schrumpf M, Janssens IA, Thiruchittampalam B, Theloke J, Saurat M, Bringezu S, Lelieveld J, Lohila A, Rebmann C, Jung M, Bastviken D, Abril G, Grassi G, Leip A, Freibauer A, Kutsch W, Don A, Nieschulze J, Borner A, Gash JH, Dolman AJ (2010) The European carbon balance. Part 4: Integration of carbon and other trace-gas fluxes. Global Change Biology 16, 1451–1469.
Smith P (2004) Carbon sequestration in croplands: the potential in Europe and the global context. European Journal of Agronomy 20, 229–236.
| Carbon sequestration in croplands: the potential in Europe and the global context.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3sXhtVWis77O&md5=2e828c0499253cd2c2fc1e033cd08d24CAS |
Sokal RR, Rohlf FJ (1995) ‘Biometry the principles and practice of statics in biological research.’ 3rd edn (W.H. Freeman and Company: New York)
Soler CMT, Bado VB, Traore K, Bostick WM, Jones JW, Hoogenboom G (2011) Soil organic carbon dynamics and crop yield for different crop rotations in a degraded ferruginous tropical soil in a semi-arid region: A simulation approach. The Journal of Agricultural Science 149, 579–593.
| Soil organic carbon dynamics and crop yield for different crop rotations in a degraded ferruginous tropical soil in a semi-arid region: A simulation approach.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3MXhtlans7bE&md5=541b1090143c6802de176986f7e358dbCAS |
Stocker BD, Roth R, Joos F, Spahni R, Steinacher M, Zaehle S, Bouwman L, Xu-Ri , Prentice IC (2013) Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios. Nature Climate Change 3, 666–672.
| Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3sXhtVajt7nF&md5=a705044abf19a6a8b355c213bcd65bdfCAS |
Unkovich M, Baldock J, Marvanek S (2009) Which crops should be included in a carbon accounting system for Australian agriculture? Crop & Pasture Science 60, 617–626.
| Which crops should be included in a carbon accounting system for Australian agriculture?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wang E, Robertson MJ, Hammer GL, Carberry PS, Holzworth D, Meinke H, Chapman SC, Hargreaves JNG, Huth NI, McLean G (2002) Development of a generic crop model template in the cropping system model APSIM. European Journal of Agronomy 18, 121–140.
| Development of a generic crop model template in the cropping system model APSIM.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wang E, Van Oosterom E, Meinke H, Robertson M, Hunt N, Keating B, Probert M (2003) The new APSIM-Wheat Model performance and future improvements. In ‘Solutions for a Better Environment: Proceedings of the 11th Australian Agronomy Conference’. Geelong, Vic. (Eds M Unkovich, G O’Leary) Available at: www.regional.org.au/au/asa/2003/p/2/wang.htm
Wang E, Xu JH, Smith CJ (2008) Value of historical climate knowledge, SOI-based seasonal climate forecasting and stored soil moisture at sowing in crop nitrogen management in south eastern Australia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 148, 1743–1753.
| Value of historical climate knowledge, SOI-based seasonal climate forecasting and stored soil moisture at sowing in crop nitrogen management in south eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
West TO, Post WM (2002) Soil organic carbon sequestration rates by tillage and crop rotation: A global data analysis. Soil Science Society of America Journal 66, 1930–1946.
| Soil organic carbon sequestration rates by tillage and crop rotation: A global data analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD38XoslKhsbk%3D&md5=e0551348be10df01d3c1845d98524368CAS |
Zhao G, Bryan BA, King D, Luo Z, Wang E, Song X, Yu Q (2013) Impact of agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon: Simulation of Australian wheat systems. Global Change Biology 19, 1585–1597.
| Impact of agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon: Simulation of Australian wheat systems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23504769PubMed |
