Assessing the impact of historical and future climate change on potential natural vegetation types and net primary productivity in Australian grazing lands
Xiaoni Liu A C , Baisen Zhang B D , Beverley Henry C , Jinglan Zhang C and Peter Grace C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A College of Grassland Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
B Science Division, Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation, 41 Boggo Road, Dutton Park, Qld 4102, Australia.
C Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia.
D Corresponding author. Email: baisen.zhang@dsiti.qld.gov.au
The Rangeland Journal 39(4) 387-400 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ17081
Submitted: 8 August 2017 Accepted: 16 October 2017 Published: 31 October 2017
Abstract
The study investigated the impact of historical and future climate changes on potential natural vegetation (PNV) types and net primary productivity (NPP) in Australia, using the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System model and the Miami model coupled with climate of the 1931–70 and 1971–2010 periods and the projected climate in 2050. Twenty-eight vegetation classes were classified based on the key climate indicators with four of them being the major vegetation classes corresponding to Australian rangelands and accounting for 75% of total land area. There was a substantial shift in areas of vegetation classes from the 1931–70 period to the 1971–2010 period due to the increased rainfall over large areas across Australia. The modelling projected a range of changes in vegetation classes for 2050 depending on the climate-change scenario used. Many vegetation classes with more intense land use (e.g. steppe and forest) were projected to decrease in 2050, which may have significant impact on the grazing industry and biodiversity conservation. By 2050, NPP was projected to increase in central and northern Australia and to decrease in southern and eastern coastal areas and was projected to be higher on average than that of the 1931–70 period. The vegetation classes approximately corresponding to Australian rangelands mostly had increased NPP projections compared with the 1931–70 period. Although actual response will partially depend on human management activities, fire and extreme events, the projected increase in average NPP in 2050 indicates that Australian vegetation, particularly the rangeland vegetation, will likely be a net carbon sink rather than a carbon source by 2050, with the exception of a ‘warm-dry’ scenario.
Additional keywords: carbon accounting, CSCS, General Circulation Models, spatial modelling.
References
Adams-Hosking, C., Grantham, H. S., Rhodes, J. R., McAlpine, C., and Moss, P. T. (2011). Modelling climate-change-induced shifts in the distribution of the koala. Wildlife Research 38, 122–130.| Modelling climate-change-induced shifts in the distribution of the koala.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bakkenes, M., Alkemade, J. R. M., Ihle, F., Leemans, R., and Latour, J. B. (2002). Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Global Change Biology 8, 390–407.
| Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Brzeziecki, B., Kienast, F., and Wildi, O. (1993). A simulated map of the potential natural forest vegetation of Switzerland. Journal of Vegetation Science 4, 499–508.
| A simulated map of the potential natural forest vegetation of Switzerland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Burgess, S., Ricketts, J., Panjkov, A., Carter, J., and Day, K. (2012). Consistent Climate Scenarios Project User Guide: ‘Change factor’ and ‘Quantile-matching’ based climate projections data. Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts. Available at: www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/climateprojections/pdf/userguide.pdf (accessed 1 October 2017).
Burrows, W. H., Henry, B. K., Back, P. V., Hoffman, M. B., Tait, L. J., Anderson, E. R., Menke, N., Danaher, T., Carter, J. O., and McKeon, G. M. (2002). Growth and carbon stock change in eucalypt woodlands in north-east Australia. Ecological and greenhouse sink implications. Global Change Biology 8, 769–784.
| Growth and carbon stock change in eucalypt woodlands in north-east Australia. Ecological and greenhouse sink implications.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Carter, J., Wynn, J., and Bird, M. (2004). Estimating NPP and impacts of climate change on sandy soils in Australia using a soil carbon model calibrated to measurements of soil carbon, nitrogen and carbon isotopes. In: ‘SuperSoil 2004. Proceedings 3rd Australian New Zealand Soil Conference’. 5–9 December 2004. University of Sydney, NSW. (Ed. B. Singh.) (The Regional Institute: Gosford, NSW.) Available at: www.regional.org.au/au/asssi/supersoil2004/
Chiarucci, A., Araújo, M. B., Decocq, G., Beierkuhnlein, C., and Fernández-Palacios, J. M. (2010). The concept of potential natural vegetation: an epitaph? Journal of Vegetation Science 21, 1172–1178.
| The concept of potential natural vegetation: an epitaph?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Chu, C., Bartlett, M., Wang, Y., He, F., Weiner, J., Chave, J., and Sack, L. (2016). Does climate directly influence NPP globally? Global Change Biology 22, 12–24.
| Does climate directly influence NPP globally?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Colhoun, E. (2000). Vegetation and climate change during the last Interglacial–Glacial cycle in western Tasmania, Australia. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 155, 195–209.
| Vegetation and climate change during the last Interglacial–Glacial cycle in western Tasmania, Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Department of the Environment and Water Resources (2007). ‘Australia’s Native Vegetation: A Summary of Australia’s Major Vegetation Groups.’ (Australian Government: Canberra, ACT.)
Donohue, R. J., McVicar, T. R., and Roderick, M. L. (2009). Climate-related trends in Australian vegetation cover as inferred from satellite observations, 1981–2006. Global Change Biology 15, 1025–1039.
| Climate-related trends in Australian vegetation cover as inferred from satellite observations, 1981–2006.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Gang, C. C., Zhou, W., Li, J. L., Chen, Y. Z., Mu, S. J., Ren, J. Z., Chen, J. M., and Groisman, Y. P. (2013). Assessing the spatiotemporal variation in distribution, extent and NPP of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate change from 1911 to 2000. PLoS One 8, e80394.
| Assessing the spatiotemporal variation in distribution, extent and NPP of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate change from 1911 to 2000.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Gottfried, M., Pauli, H., Futschik, A., Akhalkatsi, M., Barančok, P., Benito Alonso, J. L., Coldea, G., Dick, J., Erschbamer, B., Fernández Calzado, M. R., Kazakis, G., Krajči, J., Larsson, P., Mallaun, M., Michelsen, O., Moiseev, D., Moiseev, P., Molau, U., Merzouki, A., Nagy, L., Nakhutsrishvili, G., Pedersen, B., Pelino, G., Puscas, M., Rossi, G., Stanisci, A., Theurillat, J.-P., Tomaselli, G., Villar, L., Vittoz, P., Vogiatzakis, I., and Grabherr, G. (2012). Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change. Nature Climate Change 2, 111–115.
| Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Grace, P. R., Post, W. M., and Hennessy, K. (2006). The potential impact of climate change on Australia’s soil organic carbon resources. Carbon Balance and Management 1, 14.
| The potential impact of climate change on Australia’s soil organic carbon resources.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hellstrom, J., McCulloch, M., and Stone, J. (1998). A detailed 31,000-year record of climate and vegetation change, from the isotope geochemistry of two New Zealand speleothems. Quaternary Research 50, 167–178.
| A detailed 31,000-year record of climate and vegetation change, from the isotope geochemistry of two New Zealand speleothems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DyaK1cXmvVOms7c%3D&md5=96b616a60b799b4a2d2c4c268ed28ea7CAS |
Hickler, T., Vohland, K., Feehan, J., Miller, P. A., Smith, B., Costa, L., Giesecke, T., Fronzek, S., Carter, T. R., Cramer, W., Kühn, I., and Sykes, M. T. (2012). Projecting the future distribution of European potential natural vegetation zones with a generalized, tree species-based dynamic vegetation model. Global Ecology and Biogeography 21, 50–63.
| Projecting the future distribution of European potential natural vegetation zones with a generalized, tree species-based dynamic vegetation model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hill, M. J., Roxburgh, S. H., Carter, J. O., and McKeon, G. M. (2005). Vegetation state change and consequent carbon dynamics in savanna woodlands of Australia in response to grazing, drought and fire: a scenario approach using 113 years of synthetic annual fire and grassland growth. Australian Journal of Botany 53, 715–739.
| Vegetation state change and consequent carbon dynamics in savanna woodlands of Australia in response to grazing, drought and fire: a scenario approach using 113 years of synthetic annual fire and grassland growth.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hughes, J. K., Valdes, P. J., and Betts, R. (2006). Dynamics of a global-scale vegetation model. Ecological Modelling 198, 452–462.
| Dynamics of a global-scale vegetation model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
IPCC (2000). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change. Available at: https://ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf (accessed 1 October 2017).
Jeffrey, S. J., Carter, J. O., Moodie, K. M., and Beswick, A. R. (2001). Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data External link icon. Environmental Modelling & Software 16, 309–330.
| Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data External link icon.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kelly, A. E., and Goulden, M. L. (2008). Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105, 11823–11826.
| Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1cXhtVCnurvM&md5=16bedec3b92f143f4e6146069c26ebbeCAS |
Kirkpatrick, J. B. (1999). ‘A Continent Transformed: Human Impact on the Natural Vegetation of Australia.’ (Oxford University Press: Melbourne.)
Köppen, W. (1936). Das geographische System der Klimate. In ‘Handbuch der Klimatologie’. (Borntraeger: Berlin.)
Krishnaswamy, J., John, R., and Joseph, S. (2014). Consistent response of vegetation dynamics to recent climate change in tropical mountain regions. Global Change Biology 20, 203–215.
| Consistent response of vegetation dynamics to recent climate change in tropical mountain regions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Leith, H. (1975). Modeling the primary productivity of the world. In: ‘Primary Productivity of the Biosphere’. (Eds H. Leith and R. H. Whittaker.) pp. 237–263. (Springer-Verlag: New York.)
Lenihan, J. M., Drapek, R., Bachelet, D., and Neilson, R. P. (2003). Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California. Ecological Applications 13, 1667–1681.
| Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Liang, T. G., Feng, Q. S., Yu, H., Huan, X. D., Lin, H. L., An, S. Z., and Ren, J. Z. (2012). Dynamics of natural vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau from past to future using a comprehensive and sequential classification system and remote sensing data. Japanese Grassland Science 58, 208–220.
| Dynamics of natural vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau from past to future using a comprehensive and sequential classification system and remote sensing data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Liu, Y., Jeu, R. D., Mccabe, M., Evans, J., and Van Dijk, A. (2011). Satellite-based estimates of vegetation density over Australia during 1988–2008. In: ‘Remote Sensing and Ground-based Methods in Multi-Scale Hydrology. Proceedings of Symposium J-H01 during IUGG 2011’. July 2011. Melbourne, Australia. IAHS Publication No. 343. pp. 98–103. (IAHS.)
Liu, X. N., Wang, H. X., Guo, J., Wei, J. Q., Ren, Z. C., Pan, D. R., Zhang, D. G., and Zhang, J. L. (2014). Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes – an improved method of integrating a climate-based classification model with interpolated climate surfaces. The Rangeland Journal 36, 175–183.
| Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes – an improved method of integrating a climate-based classification model with interpolated climate surfaces.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Mather, J. R., and Yoshioka, G. A. (1968). The role of climate in the distribution of vegetation. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 58, 29–41.
| The role of climate in the distribution of vegetation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McKeon, G., Hall, W., Henry, B., Stone, G., and Watson, I. (2004). ‘Pasture Degradation and Recovery in Australia’s Rangelands: Learning from History.’ (Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines, and Energy: Brisbane.)
McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J., and Day, K. A. (2009). Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: A review of issues. The Rangeland Journal 31, 1–29.
| Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: A review of issues.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Motew, M. M., and Kucharik, C. J. (2013). Climate-induced changes in biome distribution, NPP, and hydrology in the Upper Midwest US: A case study for potential vegetation. Journal of Geophysical Research 118, 248–264.
Overpeck, J., Rind, D., and Goldberg, R. (1990). Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature 343, 51–53.
| Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Page, C. M., and Jones, R. N. (2001). OzClim: the development of a climate scenario generator for Australia. In: ‘MODSIM 2001: International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand)’. (Ed. F. Ghassemi.) pp. 667–671. (Australian National University: Canberra, ACT.)
Pielke, R. A., Pitman, A., Niyogi, D., Mahmood, R., McAlpine, C., Hossain, F., Goldewijk, K. K., Nair, U., Betts, R., Fall, S., Reichstein, M., Kabat, P., and de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. (2011). Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence. Climatic Change 2, 828–850.
Pittock, A. B., and Nix, H. A. (1986). The effect of changing climate on Australian biomass production – a preliminary study. Climatic Change 8, 243–255.
| The effect of changing climate on Australian biomass production – a preliminary study.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DyaL1cXotFSmug%3D%3D&md5=cdee0b35836db7c21853824860174135CAS |
Ren, J. Z., Hu, Z. Z., and Mu, X. D. (1980). The integrated orderly classification system of grassland and its significance of grassland embryology. Chinese Journal of Grassland 1, 12–24.
Ren, J. Z., Hu, Z. Z., Zhao, J., Zhang, D. G., Hou, F. J., Lin, H. L., and Mu, X. D. (2008). A grassland classification system and its application in China. The Rangeland Journal 30, 199–209.
| A grassland classification system and its application in China.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Roxburgh, S. H., Barrett, D. J., Berry, S. L., Carter, J. O., Davies, I. D., Gifford, R. M., Kirschbaum, M. U. F., McBeth, B. P., Noble, I. R., Parton, W. G., Raupach, M. R., and Roderick, M. L. (2004). A critical overview of model estimates of net primary productivity for the Australian continent. Functional Plant Biology 31, 1043–1059.
| A critical overview of model estimates of net primary productivity for the Australian continent.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Running, S. W., Nemani, R. R., Heinsch, F. N., Zhao, M. S., Reeves, M., and Hashimoto, H. (2004). A continuous satellite-derived measure of global terrestrial primary production. Bioscience 54, 547–560.
| A continuous satellite-derived measure of global terrestrial primary production.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Sherwood, S. C., Bony, S., and Dufresne, J. L. (2014). Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing. Nature 505, 37–42.
| Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Theurillat, J. P., and Guisan, A. (2001). Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review. Climatic Change 50, 77–109.
| Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3MXmtlGhtr0%3D&md5=9d0c49f7acc8d75467dd9fdce073027dCAS |
Tüxen, R. (1956). Dieheutige potentielle natu¨rliche Vegetation als Gegenstand der Vegetationskartierung Angew. Pflanzensoziol (Stolzenau) 13, 5–42.
Westhoff, V., and van der Maarel, E. (1978). The Braun–Blanquet approach. In: ‘Classification of Plant Communities’. (Ed. R. H. Whittaker.) pp. 289–399. (Dr. W. Junk Publishers: The Hague.)
Woodward, F. I., and McKee, I. F. (1991). Vegetation and climate. Environment International 17, 535–546.
| Vegetation and climate.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Xu, J. H., Liu, X. N., and Zhang, D. G. (2009). Integrated orderly classification of grassland in Tianzhu county and evaluation of ecosystem service value. Chinese Journal of Grassland 31, 23–29.
Zhang, G. G., Kang, Y. M., Han, G. D., and Sakurai, K. (2011). Effect of climate change over the past half century on the distribution, extent and NPP of ecosystems of Inner Mongolia. Global Change Biology 17, 377–389.
| Effect of climate change over the past half century on the distribution, extent and NPP of ecosystems of Inner Mongolia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Zhang, M. L., Lal, R., Zhao, Y. Y., Jiang, W. L., and Chen, Q. Q. (2016). Estimating net primary production of natural grassland and its spatio-temporal distribution in China. The Science of the Total Environment 553, 184–195.
| Estimating net primary production of natural grassland and its spatio-temporal distribution in China.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC28XksVWnsLs%3D&md5=42ea16d325ff829fea9449908bb145edCAS |
