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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 30(3)

Australian rainfall patterns and the southern oscillation. 2. A regional perspective in relation to Luni-solar (Mn) and Solar-cycle (Sc) signals

R. G. Vines
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Formerly: CSIRO Division of Forest Research, Private Bag 10, Clayton, Vic. 3168, Australia; Present address: 15 Stanley Grove, Canterbury, Vic. 3126, Australia. Email: plessons@netspace.net.au

The Rangeland Journal 30(3) 349-359 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ07025
Submitted: 1 April 2007  Accepted: 17 September 2008   Published: 30 October 2008

Abstract

This investigation is an extension of earlier work on rainfall patterns in eastern Australia. Using district averages rather than rainfall data for individual cities or towns, further evidence is provided for cyclic variations in precipitation with periods of 18–19, 10–11 and 6–7 years. Results from various regional areas in western Queensland and western New South Wales differ from those found further south in Victoria, and connections are suggested between El Niño/southern oscillation events and the incidence of drought in these two separate areas. Such findings are consistent with ecological aspects of the quasi-periodic occurrence of bushfire seasons as observed in both Victorian eucalypt forests after prolonged drought, or after intermittent widespread rains in the semi-arid Mallee rangelands of western New South Wales.

The ~19-year cycles may be at least partly a reflection of solar and lunar tidal components and the ~11-year cycles (connected with the Sunspot cycle) could be the result of absorption of short wavelength solar emissions in the stratosphere and resultant photochemical events magnified to produce sea surface temperature changes. The ~19-year cycles are apparently associated with either increased or decreased rainfall, and such connections appear to reverse in parts of Australia about every 100 years. These reversals have been associated with major droughts at the end of the 19th and 20th centuries.

Additional keywords: bushfires, drought, El Niño, filter-analysis, rainfall cycles.


Acknowledgements

Thanks are due to Mr S. G. Marsden for providing filter outputs from analysis of the rainfall data, and to my son, Richard Vines, who has assisted greatly. I am grateful for Dr J. C. Noble’s stimulating help over many years; and Mr. A. I. Tomlinson has also contributed many valuable comments. Helpful suggestions were forwarded by three anonymous referees in the production of this paper; and I am especially indebted to the Editor for his important contributions and substantial amendments to the text.


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