Free Standard AU & NZ Shipping For All Book Orders Over $80!
Register      Login
The Rangeland Journal The Rangeland Journal Society
Journal of the Australian Rangeland Society
Shopping Cart: ( empty )
You are here: Home > Journals > RJ > RJ10039 > Fulltext
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 32(3)

Managing Murray–Darling Basin livestock systems in a variable and changing climate: challenges and opportunities

S. J. Crimp A G , C. J. Stokes B , S. M. Howden A , A. D. Moore C , B. Jacobs D , P. R. Brown A , A. J. Ash E , P. Kokic A and P. Leith F
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, GPO Box 284, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.

B CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, PMB PO Aitkenvale, Qld 4814, Australia.

C CSIRO Plant Industries, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, GPO Box 1600, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.

D New South Wales Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, PO Box 3720, Parramatta, NSW 2124, Australia.

E CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia.

F University of Tasmania, Private Bag 78, Hobart, Tas. 7001, Australia.

G Corresponding author. Email: Steven.Crimp@csiro.au

The Rangeland Journal 32(3) 293-304 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ10039
Submitted: 30 July 2010  Accepted: 30 August 2010   Published: 14 September 2010

Abstract

The key biophysical impacts associated with projected climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) include: declines in pasture productivity, reduced forage quality, livestock heat stress, greater problems with some pests and weeds, more frequent droughts, more intense rainfall events, and greater risks of soil degradation. The most arid and least productive rangelands in the MDB region may be the most severely impacted by climate change, while the more productive eastern and northern grazing lands in the MDB may provide some opportunities for slight increases in production. In order to continue to thrive in the future, livestock industries need to anticipate these changes, prepare for uncertainty, and develop adaptation strategies now. While climate change will have direct effects on livestock, the dominant influences on grazing enterprises in the MDB will be through changes in plant growth and the timing, quantity and quality of forage availability. Climate change will involve a complex mix of responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, rising temperatures, changes in rainfall and other weather factors, and broader issues related to how people collectively and individually respond to these changes. Enhancing the ability of individuals to respond to a changing climate will occur through building adaptive capacity. We have, via secondary data, selected from the Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey, built a national composite index of generic adaptive capacity of rural households. This approach expresses adaptive capacity as an emergent property of the diverse forms of human, social, natural, physical and financial capital from which livelihoods are derived. Human capital was rated as ‘high’ across the majority of the MDB compared with the rest of Australia, while social, physical and financial capital were rated as ‘moderate’ to ‘low’. The resultant measure of adaptive capacity, made up of the five capitals, was ‘low’ in the northern and central-west regions of the MDB and higher in the central and eastern parts possibly indicating a greater propensity to adapt to climate change in these regions.

Additional keywords: adaptation, adaptive capacity, climate change impacts, grazing management.


Acknowledgements

The authors thank Dr Greg McKeon for his significant intellectual contribution to the development of this paper, and the two anonymous reviewers who provided critical comments.


References


ABARE (2003). ‘Australian Farm Survey Report.’ (Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics: Canberra.)

ABARE (2006). ‘Australian Farm Survey Report.’ (Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics: Canberra.)

ABARE (2008). ‘Australian Farm Survey Report.’ (Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics: Canberra.)

Adger W. N. (2006) Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change 16, 268–281.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Ainsworth E. A., Long S. P. (2005) What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy. New Phytologist 165, 351–372.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | PubMed | open url image1

Alcock D. , Graham P. , Moore A. D. , Lilley J. M. , and Zurcher E. J. (2010). GrassGro indicates that erosion risk drives adaptation of southern tablelands grazing farms to projected climate change. In: ‘Climate Adaptation Futures – Preparing for the Unavoidable Impacts of Climate Change. Proceedings of the 2010 International Climate Change Adaptation Conference’. 29 June–1 July 2010, Surfers Paradise, Qld. (Eds J. Palutikof, A. Ash, M. Stafford Smith, M. Waschka, M. Sparksman and K. Franzidis.) p. 67. (NACCRF: Brisbane.)

Ash A. J., Prinsen J. H., Myles D. J., Hendricksen R. E. (1982) Short-term effects of burning native pasture in spring on herbage and animal production in south-east Queensland. Proceedings of the Australian Society of Animal Production 14, 377–380. open url image1

Bardsley P., Chambers R. L. (1984) Multipurpose estimation from unbalanced samples. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C 33, 290–299. open url image1

Bisset W. J. (1962) The black spear grass (Heteropogon contortus) problem of the sheep country in central western Queensland. Queensland Journal of Agricultural Science 19, 189–207. open url image1

Bodin O., Crona B. (2009) The role of social networks in natural resource governance: what relational patterns make a difference? Global Environmental Change 19, 366–374.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Brown P. R., Nelson R., Jacobs B., Kokic P., Tracey J., Ahmed M., DeVoil P. (2010) Enabling natural resource managers to self-assess their adaptive capacity. Agricultural Systems 103, 562–568.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Burrows W. H., Henry B. K., Back P. V., Hoffmann M. B., Tait L. J., Anderson E. R., Menke N., Danaher T., Carter J. O., McKeon G. M. (2002) Growth and carbon stock change in eucalypt woodlands in northeast Australia: ecological and greenhouse sink implications. Global Change Biology 8, 769–784.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Carter J. , Hall W. , Brook K. , McKeon G. , Day K. , and Paull C . (2000). AussieGRASS: Australian grassland and rangelands assessment by spatial simulation. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience’. (Eds G. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell) (Kluwer Academic Publishers: The Netherlands.)

Cinner J. M., Fuentes B. P., Randriamahazo H. (2009) Exploring social resilience in Madagascar’s marine protected areas. Ecology and Society 14(1), 41–61. open url image1

Cobon D. H. , and Toombs N. R. (2007). ‘Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resource management.’ Qld Case Studies – Fitzroy Basin. Production and natural resource indicators in beef systems under climate change conditions. Final Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office. (Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines: Brisbane.)

Cobon D. H., Bell K. L., Park J. N., Keogh D. U. (2008) Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland. The Rangeland Journal 30, 361–374.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Crimp S. J. , Flood N. R. , Carter J. O. , Conroy J. P. , and McKeon G. M. (2002). ‘Evaluation of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Pasture Production: Implications for Livestock Carrying Capacity.’ Final Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office. (Australian Greenhouse Office: Canberra.)

CSIRO (2008). ‘Water Availability in the Murray–Darling Basin.’ A Report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Murray–Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne.)

CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2007). ‘Climate Change in Australia: Technical Report 2007.’ (CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology: Melbourne.)

Cullen B. R., Johnson I. R., Eckard R. J., Lodge G. M., Walker R. G., Rawnsley R. P., McCaskill M. R. (2009) Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia. Crop & Pasture Science 60, 933–942.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Curll M. L. (1977) Superphosphate on perennial pastures. Effects of a pasture response on sheep production. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 28, 991–1005.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Day K. A. , Ahrens D. G. , Peacock A. , Rickert K. G. , and McKeon G. M. (2000). Climate tools for northern grassy landscapes. In: ‘Challenges for Northern Rangelands. Proceedings of the Northern Grassy Landscapes Conference’. 29–31 August 2000, Katherine, Northern Territory. (Ed. D. White.) pp. 93–97. (CRC for the Sustainable Development of Tropical Savannas: Casuarina, NT.)

Donnelly J. R. (1984) The productivity of breeding ewes grazing on lucerne or grass and clover pastures on the tablelands of southern Australia. III. Lamb mortality and weaning percentages. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 35, 709–721.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Ellis F. (2000). ‘Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries.’ (Oxford University Press: Oxford.)

Gifford R. , Campbell B. D. , and Howden S. M. (1996). Options for adapting agriculture to climate change: Australian and New Zealand examples. In: ‘Greenhouse: Coping With Climate Change’. (Eds W. Bouma, G. I. Pearman and M. R. Manning.) pp. 399–416. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne.)

Hall W. B., McKeon G. M., Carter J. O., Day K. A., Howden S. M., Scanlan J. C., Johnston P. W., Burrows W. H. (1998) Climate change in Queensland’s grazing lands: II. An assessment of the impact on animal production from native pastures. The Rangeland Journal 20, 177–205.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Herne B. (1998) U.S. cattle cycle is the key to rising prices. Brigaletter 32, 1–2. open url image1

Hill J. O., Simpson R. J., Moore A. D., Graham P., Chapman D. F. (2004) Impact of phosphorus application and sheep grazing on the botanical composition of sown pasture and naturalised, native grass pasture. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 55, 1213–1225.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | open url image1

Howden S. M. , and Turnpenny J. (1997). Modelling heat stress and water loss of beef cattle in subtropical Queensland under current climates and climate change. In: ‘MODSIM 1997. International Congress on Modelling and Simulation Proceedings’. University of Tasmania, Hobart. (Eds D. A. McDonald and M. McAleer.) pp. 1103–1108. (Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia: Canberra.)

Howden S. M. , Hall W. B. , and Bruget D. (1999a). Heat stress and beef cattle in Australian rangelands: recent trends and climate change. In: ‘People and Rangelands: Building the Future. Proceedings of the VI International Rangeland Congress’. (Eds D. Eldridge and D. Freudenberger.) pp. 43–45. (VI International Rangeland Congress Inc.: Townsville.)

Howden S. M., McKeon G. M., Walker L., Carter J. O., Conroy J. P., Day K. A., Hall W. B., Ash A. J., Ghannoum O. (1999b) Global change impacts on native pastures in south-east Queensland, Australia. Environmental Modelling & Software 14, 307–316.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Howden S. M., McKeon G. M., Meinke H., Entel M., Flood N. (2001b) Impacts of climate change and climate variability on the competitiveness of wheat and beef cattle production in Emerald, north-east Australia. Environment International 27, 155–160.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | PubMed | open url image1

Howden S. M., Moore J. L., McKeon G. M., Carter J. O. (2001a) Global change and the mulga woodlands of south-west Queensland: greenhouse emissions, impacts and adaptation. Environment International 27, 161–166.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | PubMed | open url image1

Jacobs B. , Brown P. R. , Nelson R. , Leith P. , Tracey J. , McNamara L. , Ahmed M. , and Mitchell S. (2010). ‘Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting Natural Resource Manager Capacity for NSW Catchments.’ Final Technical Report to NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water. (NSW Government: Sydney.)

Johnston P. W. , Buxton R. , Carter J. O. , Cobon D. H. , Day K. A. , Hall W. B. , Holmes W. B. , McKeon G. M. , Quirk M. F. , and Scanlan J. C. (2000). Managing climate variability in Queenslands grazing lands – new approaches. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – The Australian Experience’. (Eds G. L. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 197–226. (Kluwer Academic Press: Amsterdam.)

Johnston P. W., McKeon G. M., Day K. A. (1996) Objective ‘safe’ grazing capacities for south-west Queensland Australia: development of a model for individual properties. The Rangeland Journal 18, 244–258.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Keeling C. D., Chin J. F. S., Whorf T. P. (1996) Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements. Nature 382, 146–149.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | open url image1

Lilley J. M., Bolger T. P., Peoples M. B., Gifford R. M. (2001) Nutritive value and the nitrogen dynamics of Trifolium subterraneum and Phalaris aquatica under warmer, high CO2 conditions. New Phytologist 150, 385–395.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | open url image1

Marshall N. A. (2010) Understanding social resilience to climate variability in primary enterprises and industries. Global Environmental Change 20, 36–43.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Marshall N. A. , Stokes C. J. , Howden S. M. , and Nelson R. N. (2010). Enhancing adaptive capacity. In: ‘Climate Change Adaptation in Australia: Preparing Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the Future’. (Eds C. J. Stokes and S. M. Howden.) pp. 245–256. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne.)

McKeon G. M. , and Howden S. M. (1992). Adapting the management of Queensland’s grazing systems to climate change. In: ‘Climate Change: Implications for Natural Resource Conservation’. University of Western Sydney Occasional Papers in Biological Sciences No. 1. (Ed. S. Burgin.) pp. 123–140. (University of Western Sydney: Sydney.)

McKeon G. , Hall W. , Henry B. , Stone G. , and Watson I. (2004). ‘Pasture degradation and recovery in Australia’s rangelands: learning from history.’ (Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy: Brisbane.)

McKeon G. M., Stone G. S., Syktus J. I., Carter J. O., Flood N., Fraser G. W., Crimp S. J., Cowley R., Johnston P. W., Stokes C. J., Cobon D., Ryan J. G., Howden S. M. (2009) Climate change impacts on rangeland livestock carrying capacity: more questions than answers. The Rangeland Journal 31, 1–29.
| Crossref |
open url image1

McLeod R. S. (1995) Costs of major parasites to the Australian livestock industries. International Journal for Parasitology 25, 1363–1367.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | PubMed | open url image1

McMeniman N. P., Beale I. F., Murphy G. M. (1986) Nutritional evaluation of south-west Queensland pastures. I. The botanical and nutrient content of diets selected by sheep grazing on Mitchell grass and mulga/grassland associations. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 37, 289–302.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Moore A. D., Bell L. W., Revell D. K. (2009) Feed gaps in mixed-farming systems: insights from the Grain & Graze program. Animal Production Science 49, 736–748.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Myneni R. B., Keeling C. D., Tucker C. J., Asrar G., Nemani R. R. (1997) Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 386, 698–702.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | open url image1

Nelson R., Lawrence L. (2004) Resource use in agriculture. Australian Commodities 11(1), 27–29. open url image1

Nelson R., Kokic P., Crimp S., Meinke H., Howden S. M. (2010a) The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part I – conceptualising and measuring vulnerability. Environmental Science & Policy 13, 8–17.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Nelson R., Kokic P., Crimp S., Martin P., Meinke H., Howden S. M., de Voil P., Nidumolu U. (2010b) The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part II – integrating impacts with adaptive capacity. Environmental Science & Policy 13, 18–27.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Newton P. C. D., Clark H., Bell C. C., Glasgow E. M., Campbell B. D. (1994) Effects of elevated CO2 and simulated seasonal changes in temperature on the species composition and growth rates of pasture turves. Annals of Botany 73, 53–59.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Orr D. M. (1986). Factors affecting the vegetation dynamics of Astrebla grasslands. PhD Thesis, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.

Park J. N. , Cobon D. H. , and Phelps D. G. (2003). Modelling pasture growth in the Mitchell grasslands. In: ‘MODSIM 2003. International Congress on Modelling and Simulation Proceedings’. 14–17 July, Townsville, Qld. (Ed. D. Post.) pp. 519–524. (Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia: Canberra.)

Reeson A. F., McAllister R. R. J., Whitten S. M., Gordon I. J., Nicholas M., McDouall S. S. (2008) The agistment market in the northern Australian rangelands: failings and opportunities. The Rangeland Journal 30, 283–289.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Reynolds J. F., Stafford Smith D. M., Lambin E. F., Turner B. L., Mortimore M., Batterbury S. P. J., Downing T. E., Dowlatabadi H., Fernandez R. J., Herrick J. E., Huber-Sannwald E., Jiang H., Leemans R., Lynam T., Maestre F. T., Ayarza M., Walker B. (2007) Global desertification: building a science for dryland development. Science 316, 847–851.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | PubMed | open url image1

Ribot J. , Najam A. , and Watson G. (2009). Climate variation, vulnerability and sustainable development in the semi-arid tropics. In: ‘The Earthscan Reader on Adaptation to Climate Change’. (Eds E. Lisa, F. Schipper and Ian Burton.) pp. 117–160. (Earthscan: London.)

Robinson G. G., Lazenby A. (1976) Effect of superphosphate, white clover and stocking rate on the productivity of natural pastures, Northern Tablelands, New South Wales. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture and Animal Husbandry 16, 209–217.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Salmon L. , and Donnelly J. D. (2007). Variability in weather: what are the consequences for grazing enterprises? In: ‘Pasture Systems: Managing for a Variable Climate. Proceedings of the 22nd Conference of the Grassland Society of NSW’. Queanbeyan, 18–19 July 2007. (Eds D. Graden, H. Dovve and T. Bolger.) pp. 74–79. (Grassland Society of NSW: Orange.)

Scanlan J. C., Hinton A. W., McKeon G. M., Day K. A., Mott J. J. (1994) Estimating safe carrying capacities of extensive cattle-grazing properties within tropical, semi-arid woodlands of north-eastern Australia. The Rangeland Journal 16, 64–76.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Schultz L. (2009). Nurturing resilience in social-ecological systems: lessons learned from bridging organizations. PhD Thesis, Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Sweden.

Stafford Smith D. M. , Abel N. , Walker B. , and Chapin F. S. III (2009). Drylands: Coping with uncertainty, thresholds, and changes in state. In: ‘Principles of Ecosystem Stewardship: Resilience-Based Natural Resource Management in a Changing World’. (Eds F. S. Chapin III, G. P. Kofinas and C. Folke.) pp. 171–195. (Springer Science: New York.)

Stokes C. J. , and Ash A. J. (2006). Special example 1: Impacts of climate change on marginal tropical animal production systems. In: ‘Agroecosystems in a Changing Climate’. (Eds P. C. D. Newton, R. A. Carran, G. R. Edwards and P. A. Niklaus.) pp. 323–328. (CRC Press: London.)

Stokes C. J. , Crimp S. , Gifford R. , Ash A. , and Howden S. M. (2010). Broadacre grazing. In: ‘Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change: Preparing Australian Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the Future’. (Eds C. J. Stokes and M. Howden.) pp. 153–170. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne.)

Sutherst R. W. (1990) Impact of climate change on pests and diseases in Australia. Search 21, 230–232. open url image1

Sutherst R. W. , Yonow T. , Chakraborty S. , O’Donnell C. , and White N. (1996). A generic approach to defining impacts of climate change on pests, weeds and diseases in Australasia. In: ‘Greenhouse: Coping with Climate Change’. (Eds W. Bouma, G. I. Pearman and M. R. Manning.) pp. 190–204. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne.)

’t Mannetje L. (1974). Relations between pasture attributes and liveweight gains on a subtropical pasture. In: ‘Proceedings of the 12th International Grasslands Congress’. Moscow. pp. 299–304.

Tubiello F. N., Amthor J., Boote K., Donatelli M., Easterling W., Fischer G., Gifford R., Howden S. M., Reilly J., Rosenzweig C. (2007) Crop response to elevated CO2 and world food supply. European Journal of Agronomy 26, 215–223.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | open url image1

Wagner C., Fernandez-Gimenez M. (2008) Does community-based collaborative resource management increase social capital? Society & Natural Resources 21, 324–344.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Wand S. J. E., Midgley G. F., Jones M. H., Curtis P. S. (1999) Responses of wild C4 and C3 grass (Poaceae) species to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration: a meta-analytic test of current theories and perceptions. Global Change Biology 5, 723–741.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

White B. J. (1972) Supply projections for the Australian beef industry. Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics 40, 1–12. open url image1

Wilson J. R. (1982). Environmental and nutritional factors affecting herbage quality. In: ‘Nutritional Limits to Animal Production from Pastures’. (Ed. J. B. Hacker.) pp. 111–131. (CAB International: Farnham Royal.)

Wolfe E. C., FitzGerald R. D., Hall D. G., Southwood O. R. (1980) Beef production from lucerne and subterranean clover pastures. 1. The effects of pasture, stocking rate and supplementary feeding. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture and Animal Husbandry 20, 678–687.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1