The Climatology and Meteorology of High Fire Danger in the Northern Territory.

Abstract

In most areas of Australia the calculation of a fire danger index (FDI) is the cornerstone of fie weather forecasting and provides an operationally objective basis for the issue of fire weather warnings. FDI's are derived from the observation or prediction of a number of basic meteorological parameters which are then combined with information on fuel characteristics. The forest and grassland fire danger in southern Australia is greatest during the austral summer and is characterised by long periods of low fire danger interspersed with occasional extreme fire danger events. By contrast, much of tropical and subtropical Australia shows a distinctly different seasonality, magnitude and frequency of fire danger. The problem is essentially one of the austral winter-spring (dry season) period and is characterised by extended periods of moderate to high fire danger. This paper provides a broad climatological background to the problem of high fire danger in northern Australia, concentrating in particular on the Northern Territory. The paper also addresses particular meteorological situations in northern Australia which give rise to elevated fire danger. Two synoptic-scale weather patterns are discussed in particular; the passage of prefrontal troughs which seasonally produce high fire danger in the region of the tropic, and winter subtropical ridging which produces strong winds and high fire danger over the north of the continent during the dry season.