Modelling and assessment of climate change and policy response – the distribu tion and area of Kobresia meadow in the Three-River Headwaters Region, China
Huilong Lin A B , Yanfei Pu A , Lin Li A , Charles Nyandwi A , Jean de Dieu Nzabonakuze A and Rong Tang A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Chinese Centre for Strategic Research of Grassland Agriculture Development, State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Forage and Livestock Industry Innovation of the Ministry of Agriculture, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
B Corresponding author. Email: linhuilong@lzu.edu.cn
The Rangeland Journal 43(6) 297-308 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ20090
Submitted: 3 September 2020 Accepted: 7 April 2021 Published: 25 June 2021
Abstract
How the suitable distribution of a given grassland type will respond to policy implementation and climate change is a prerequisite and the basis for effective grassland management and sustainable development. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model as a comprehensive evaluation method at species level was successfully used to simulate the temporal and spatial changes in the geographical distribution of Kobresia meadow in China’s Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region under the context of policy implementation and climate change. There were three main findings. First, there are the six dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of Kobresia meadow (these being elevation, precipitation variation coefficient, March precipitation, April precipitation, April minimum temperatures, and May minimum temperatures: their threshold values are 3500–4000 m, 86–100, 8.5 mm, 12 mm, –3.5°C and 1.5°C, respectively, which indicate the most suitable conditions for Kobresia meadow distribution). Second, under current (2005–2014) climate conditions, the suitable distribution of Kobresia meadow gradually decreases from east to west, with the largest area in the east. Implementation of the ecological conservation policy in the TRH has greatly improved the ecological environment in lower elevation and high population areas. This has benefited the growth of Kobresia meadow and enlarged its suitable areas. Third, compared with the current distribution, areas suitable for Kobresia meadow will increase by 25.4–33.0% in the 2050s (2041–2060) and 17.4–33.0% in the 2070s (2061–2080) under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. More importantly, from the 2050s to the 2070s, areas suitable for Kobresia meadow will decrease or stabilise, bringing new challenges for protection and utilisation.
Keywords: bioclimatic envelope models, MaxEnt model, alpine meadow, suitable distribution, precipitation.
References
Abdelaal, M., Fois, M., Fenu, G., and Bacchetta, G. (2019). Using MaxEnt modeling to predict the potential distribution of the endemic plant Rosa arabica Crép. in Egypt. Ecological Informatics 50, 68–75.| Using MaxEnt modeling to predict the potential distribution of the endemic plant Rosa arabica Crép. in Egypt.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Barik, S. K., and Adhikari, D. (2012). Predicting the geographical distribution of an invasive species (Chromolaena odorata L. (King) & HE Robins) in the Indian subcontinent under climate change scenarios. In: ‘Invasive Alien Plants: An Ecological Appraisal for the Indian Subcontinent’. pp. 77–88. (CABI: London, UK.)
Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (2012). Models – Climate System Model. Available at: http://forecast.bcccsm.ncc-cma.net/web/channel-43.htm (accessed 12 August 2020). [In Chinese]
Bryant, J. A., Lamanna, C., Morlon, H., Kerkhoff, A. J., Enquist, B. J., and Green, J. L. (2008). Microbes on mountainsides: contrasting elevational patterns of bacterial and plant diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105, 11505–11511.
| Microbes on mountainsides: contrasting elevational patterns of bacterial and plant diversity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 18695215PubMed |
Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China (2010). More than 750,000 mu black soil beach in the Three-River Headwaters Nature Reserve has been effectively controlled into oasis. Available at: http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2010-09/01/content_1693498.htm (accessed 20 August 2020). [In Chinese]
Change IPOC (2008). Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies. Environmental Policy Collection 5, 399–406.
Chen, J. J., Yan, Y. Y., Cong, R. H., Liu, Q. F., Liu, Y., Ding, Y., Niu, J. M., and Zhang, Q. (2016). Prediction of potential distribution of Stipa breviflorain in China based on MaxEnt Model. Chinese Journal of Grassland 38, 78–84.
| Prediction of potential distribution of Stipa breviflorain in China based on MaxEnt Model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Crutzen, P. J., Mosier, A. R., Smith, K. A., and Winiwarter, W. (2016). N2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels. In: ‘A Pioneer on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Change in the Anthropocene’. (Ed. P. J. Crutzen.) pp. 227–238. (Springer International Publishing: Berlin, Germany.)
Deng, F., Li, X. B., Wanf, H., Zhang, M., Li, X., and Li, R. H. (2014). The suitability of geographic distribution and the dominant factors of alfalfa based on MaxEnt model in Xilin Gol. Pratacultural Science 31, 1840–1847.
Dong, S. C., Zhou, C. J., and Wang, H. Y. (2002). Ecological crisis and countermeasures of the Three Rivers’ Headstream Regions. Journal of Natural Resources 17, 713–720.
Elith, J., Graham, C. H., Anderson, R. P., Dudík, M., Ferrier, S., Guisan, A., Hijmans, R. J., Huettmann, F., Leathwick, J. R., Lehmann, A., Li, J., Lohmann, L. G., Loiselle, A. A., Manion, G., Moritz, C., Nakamura, M., Nakazawa, Y., Overton, J. M. M., Peterson, A. T., Phillips, S. J., Richardson, K., Scachetti-Pereira, R., Schapire, R. E., Soberón, J., Williams, S., Wisz, M. S., and Zimmermann, N. E. (2006). Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29, 129–151.
| Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Elith, J., Phillips, S. J., Hastie, T., Dudík, M., Chee, Y. E., and Yates, C. J. (2011). A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity & Distributions 17, 43–57.
| A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fan, D. Q., Zhu, W. Q., Pan, Y. Z., Jiang, N., and Zheng, Z. T. (2014). Identifying an optimal method for estimating green-up date of Kobresia pygmaea alpine meadow in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Journal of Remote Sensing 18, 1117–1127.
Feng, Q. S., Liang, T. G., Huang, X. D., Lin, H. L., Xie, H. J., and Ren, J. Z. (2013). Characteristics of global potential natural vegetation distribution from 1911 to 2000 based on comprehensive sequential classification system approach. Grassland Science 59, 87–99.
| Characteristics of global potential natural vegetation distribution from 1911 to 2000 based on comprehensive sequential classification system approach.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Franklin, J. (2009). ‘Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.)
Franklin, J., Davis, F. W., Ikegami, M., Syphard, A. D., Flint, L. E., Flint, A. L., and Hannah, L. (2013). Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be? Global Change Biology 19, 473–483.
| Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23504785PubMed |
Gilfillan, D., Joyner, T. A., and Scheuerman, P. (2018). Maxent estimation of aquatic Escherichia coli stream impairment. PeerJ 6, e5610.
| Maxent estimation of aquatic Escherichia coli stream impairment.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 30225180PubMed |
Guisan, A., and Thuiller, W. (2005). Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters 8, 993–1009.
| Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Heikkinen, R. K., Marmion, M., and Luoto, M. (2012). Does the interpolation accuracy of species distribution models come at the expense of transferability? Ecography 35, 276–288.
| Does the interpolation accuracy of species distribution models come at the expense of transferability?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Huang, X. T., Ma, L., Chen, C. B., Zhou, H. K., Yao, B. Q., and Ma, Z. (2020). Predicting the suitable geographical distribution of Sinadoxa corydalifolia under different climate change scenarios in the Three-River Region using the MaxEnt Model. Plants 9, 1015.
| Predicting the suitable geographical distribution of Sinadoxa corydalifolia under different climate change scenarios in the Three-River Region using the MaxEnt Model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kumar, S., and Stohlgren, T. J. (2009). Maxent modeling for predicting suitable habitat for threatened and endangered tree Canacomyrica monticola in New Caledonia. Journal of Ecology and the Natural Environment 1, 94–98.
Lin, H. L., and Zhang, F. (2020). Fragmentation and percolation thresholds in the degradation process of alpine meadow in the Three-River Headwaters region of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. The Rangeland Journal 42, 171–177.
| Fragmentation and percolation thresholds in the degradation process of alpine meadow in the Three-River Headwaters region of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Liu, M. C., Li, D. Q., and Wen, Y. M. (2006). Study on function and conservation of wetlands ecosystem in Sanjiangyuan region. Ecologic Science 25, 64–68.
Liu, J. Y., Xu, X. L., and Shao, Q. Q. (2008). The spatial and temporal characteristics of grassland degradation in the Three-River Headwaters Region in Qinghai Province. Acta Geographica Scinica 18, 364–376.
| The spatial and temporal characteristics of grassland degradation in the Three-River Headwaters Region in Qinghai Province.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Liu, Y., Huang, P., Lin, F., Yang, W., Gaisberger, H., Christopher, K., and Zheng, Y. (2019). MaxEnt modelling for predicting the potential distribution of a near threatened rosewood species (Dalbergia cultrata Graham ex Benth). Ecological Engineering 141, 105612.
| MaxEnt modelling for predicting the potential distribution of a near threatened rosewood species (Dalbergia cultrata Graham ex Benth).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Ma, Y. S., Lang, B. N., and Wang, Q. J. (1999). Review and prospect of the study on ‘black soil type’ deteriorated grassland. Pratacultural Science 16, 5–9.
Miller, R. G. (1974). The jackknife – a review. Biometrika 61, 1–15.
Moreno, R., Zamora, R., Molina, J. R., Vasquez, A., and Herrera, M. Á. (2011). Predictive modeling of microhabitats for endemic birds in South Chilean temperate forests using Maximum entropy (Maxent). Ecological Informatics 6, 364–370.
| Predictive modeling of microhabitats for endemic birds in South Chilean temperate forests using Maximum entropy (Maxent).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Pearson, R. G., and Dawson, T. P. (2003). Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?. Global Ecology and Biogeography 12, 361–371.
Pearson, R. G., Raxworthy, C. J., Nakamura, M., and Townsend Peterson, A. (2007). Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar. Journal of Biogeography 34, 102–117.
| Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Phillips, S. J., Dudík, M., and Schapire, R. E. (2004). A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling. In: ‘ICML ‘04: Proceedings of the Twenty-first International Conference on Machine Learning’. July 2004.
Phillips, S. J., Anderson, R. P., and Schapire, R. E. (2006). Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190, 231–259.
| Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Qinghai News (2006). Review of the ecological protection and construction in the Three-River Headwaters Nature Reserve, Qinghai Province. Available at: http://www.qhnews.com/index/system/2006/12/10/000032170.shtml (accessed 19 August 2020). [In Chinese]
Ren, J. Z., Hu, Z. Z., Zhao, J., Zhang, D. G., Hou, F. J., Lin, H. L., and Mu, X. D. (2008). A grassland classification system and its application in China. The Rangeland Journal 30, 199–209.
| A grassland classification system and its application in China.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Schmidt, H., Radinger, J., Teschlade, D., and Stoll, S. (2020). The role of spatial units in modelling freshwater fish distributions: comparing a subcatchment and river network approach using MaxEnt. Ecological Modelling 418, 108937.
| The role of spatial units in modelling freshwater fish distributions: comparing a subcatchment and river network approach using MaxEnt.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Shukla, P. K., Baradevanal, G., Rajan, S., and Fatima, T. (2020). MaxEnt prediction for potential risk of mango wilt caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata Ellis and Halst under different climate change scenarios in India. Journal of Plant Pathology 102, 765–773.
| MaxEnt prediction for potential risk of mango wilt caused by Ceratocystis fimbriata Ellis and Halst under different climate change scenarios in India.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Sun, P. F., Cui, Z. H., Liu, S. J., Chai, S. T., Hao, L. Z., and Wang, X. (2015). Seasonal evaluation of nutrition and carrying capacity of grazing pastures in the Three-River Source Region. Acta Prataculturae Sinica 24, 92–101.
Tang, C. Q., Yang, Y., Ohsawa, M., Momohara, A., Yi, S. R., Robertson, K., Song, K., Zhang, S. Q., and He, L. Y. (2015). Community structure and survival of Tertiary relict Thuja sutchuenensis (Cupressaceae) in the subtropical Daba Mountains, Southwestern China. PLoS One 10, e0125307.
| Community structure and survival of Tertiary relict Thuja sutchuenensis (Cupressaceae) in the subtropical Daba Mountains, Southwestern China.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 25928845PubMed |
The ‘Ecological Protection and Construction of the Sasnjiangyuan Natural Reserve’ Committee (2007). ‘Ecological protection and construction of the Sasnjiangyuan Natural Reserve.’ (Qinghai People’s Publishing House: Xining, China.) [In Chinese]
Wang, Y. S. (2007). Application of niche models in the risk assessment of invasive alien species. PhD thesis, Hunan Agricultural University, China. [In Chinese]
Wang, C., Lin, H. L., Feng, Q. S., Jin, C. Y., Cao, A. C., and He, L. (2017). A new strategy for the prevention and control of Eupatorium adenophorum under climate change in China. Sustainability 9, 2037.
| A new strategy for the prevention and control of Eupatorium adenophorum under climate change in China.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wei, B., Wang, R., Hou, K., Wang, X., and Wu, W. (2018). Predicting the current and future cultivation regions of Carthamus tinctorius L. using MaxEnt model under climate change in China. Global Ecology and Conservation 16, e00477.
| Predicting the current and future cultivation regions of Carthamus tinctorius L. using MaxEnt model under climate change in China.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Xu, D., Zhuo, Z., Wang, R., Ye, M., and Pu, B. (2019). Modeling the distribution of Zanthoxylum armatum in China with MaxEnt modeling. Global Ecology and Conservation 19, e00691.
| Modeling the distribution of Zanthoxylum armatum in China with MaxEnt modeling.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Yackulic, C. B., Chandler, R., Zipkin, E. F., Royle, J. A., Nichols, J. D., Campbell Grant, E. H., and Veran, S. (2013). Presence‐only modelling using MAXENT: when can we trust the inferences? Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4, 236–243.
| Presence‐only modelling using MAXENT: when can we trust the inferences?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Yi, X. S., Yin, Y. Y., Li, G. S., and Peng, J. T. (2011). Temperature variation in recent 50 years in the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province. Acta Geographica Sinica 66, 1451–1465.
Yue, T. X., Fan, Z. M., Chen, C. F., Sun, X. F., and Li, B. L. (2011). Surface modelling of global terrestrial ecosystems under three climate change scenarios. Ecological Modelling 222, 2342–2361.
| Surface modelling of global terrestrial ecosystems under three climate change scenarios.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Zeng, Y., Low, B. W., and Yeo, D. C. (2016). Novel methods to select environmental variables in MaxEnt: a case study using invasive crayfish. Ecological Modelling 341, 5–13.
| Novel methods to select environmental variables in MaxEnt: a case study using invasive crayfish.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Zhang, S. R., Liang, S. Y., and Dai, L. K. (1995). A study on the geographic distribution of the genus Kobresia willd. Journal of Systematics and Evolution 22, 144–160.
Zhang, Y., Zhang, C., Wang, Z., Chen, Y., Gang, C., An, R., and Li, J. (2016). Vegetation dynamics and its driving forces from climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region, China from 1982 to 2012. The Science of the Total Environment 563–564, 210–220.
| Vegetation dynamics and its driving forces from climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region, China from 1982 to 2012.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 27135584PubMed |
Zhang, J., Ao, Z. Q., Wu, Y. M., Yang, C. Y., and Li, M. (2017). Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Actinidia chinensis in China based on maximum entropy niche model and ArcGIS. Tropical Geography 37, 218–225.
Zhang, J., Jiang, F., Li, G., Qin, W., Li, S., Gao, H., Cai, Z., Lin, G., and Zhang, T. (2019a). Maxent modeling for predicting the spatial distribution of three raptors in the Sanjiangyuan National Park, China. Ecology and Evolution 9, 6643–6654.
| Maxent modeling for predicting the spatial distribution of three raptors in the Sanjiangyuan National Park, China.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 31236249PubMed |
Zhang, L., Jing, Z., Li, Z., Liu, Y., and Fang, S. (2019b). Predictive modeling of suitable habitats for Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl using Maxent model under climate change in China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, 3185.
| Predictive modeling of suitable habitats for Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl using Maxent model under climate change in China.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Zhou, X. M. (1979). A preliminary study of morphological-ecological characteristics of eight species of genus Kobresia in Qinghai-Tibet plateau. Acta Botanica Sinica 2, 45–52.
Zhou, X. M. (2001). ‘The Kobresia Meadow in China.’ (Science Press: Beijing, China.) [In Chinese]
