An online system for calculating and delivering long-term carrying capacity information for Queensland grazing properties. Part 2: modelling and outputs
B. Zhang A D , G. Fraser A , J. Carter B , G. Stone A , S. Irvine A , G. Whish C , J. Willcocks A and G. McKeon A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Grazing Land Systems, Queensland Department of Environment and Science, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
B Remote Sensing Centre, Queensland Department of Environment and Science, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
C Animal Science, Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
D Corresponding author: Email: baisen.zhang@qld.gov.au
The Rangeland Journal 43(3) 159-172 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ20088
Submitted: 3 September 2020 Accepted: 17 September 2021 Published: 26 October 2021
Journal Compilation © Australian Rangeland Society 2021 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
A combination of field data and models have been used to estimate long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) of domestic livestock in Queensland grazing lands. These methods have been synthesised and coupled with recent developments in science and information technology to provide a fully-automated approach of modelling LTCC through the FORAGE online system. In this study, the GRASP model was used to simulate pasture growth with parameter sets and safe pasture utilisation rates defined for 225 land types across Queensland. Distance to water points was used to assess the accessibility of pastures to livestock. Spatial analysis classified the property into unique areas based on paddock, land type and distance to water points, which estimated pasture growth, pasture utilisation and accessibility at a sub-paddock scale. Thirteen foliage projective cover (FPC) classes were used in modelling the pasture system to deal with the non-linear relationship between tree and grass interactions. As ‘proof of concept’, remotely-sensed individual-date green ground cover data were used to optimise the GRASP model parameters to improve the model performance, and a Monte Carlo analysis provided uncertainty estimates for model outcomes. The framework provides an efficient and standardised method for estimating LTCC. To test the system, LTCCs from 43 ‘benchmark’ properties were compared with simulated LTCCs, and 65% of the modelled LTCCs were within ± 25% of the benchmark LTCCs. Due to uncertainties in model inputs at the property scale and in model simulation, the modelled LTCC should be used as a starting point for further refinement of actual property LTCC.
Keywords: adult equivalent, domestic livestock carrying capacity, land condition, optimisation, safe utilisation.
References
Armston, J. D., Danaher, T. J., Goulevitch, B. M., and Byrne, M. I. (2002). Geometric correction of Landsat MSS, TM, and ETM+ imagery for mapping of woody vegetation cover and change detection in Queensland. In: ‘Proceedings of the 11th Australasian Remote Sensing and Photogrammetry Conference’. Brisbane, Qld, Australia, September 2002. (Eds A. Apan, A. Phinn, K. Joyce, D. Jonas and T. Danaher.) pp. 985–1007.Brosh, A., Henkin, Z., Ungar, E. D., Dolev, A., Shabtay, A., Orlov, A., Yehuda, Y., and Aharoni, Y. (2010). Energy cost of activities and locomotion of grazing cows: A repeated study in larger plots. American Society of Animal Science 88, 315–323.
| Energy cost of activities and locomotion of grazing cows: A repeated study in larger plots.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Burrows, W. H., Carter, J. O., Scanlan, J. C., and Anderson, E. R. (1990). Management of savannas for livestock production in north‐east Australia – contrasts across the tree grass continuum. Journal of Biogeography 17, 503–512.
| Management of savannas for livestock production in north‐east Australia – contrasts across the tree grass continuum.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Carter, J. O., Hall, W. B., Brook, K. D., McKeon, G. M., Day, K. A., and Paull, C. J. (2000). AussieGRASS: Australian Grassland and Rangeland Assessment by Spatial Simulation. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems—The Australian Experience’. (Eds G. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 329–349. (Kluwer Academic Press: Dordrecht, The Netherlands).
Christian, C. S., and Stewart, G. A. (1968). Methodology of integrated surveys. In: ‘Aerial Surveys and Integrated Studies: Proceedings of the Toulouse Conference of 1964’. (Ed. P. Rey.) pp. 233–280. (UNESCO: Paris.)
Cowley, R. A., Jenner, D., and Walsh, D. (2015). What distance from water should we use to estimate paddock carrying capacity? In: ‘Innovation in the Rangelands: Proceedings of the 18th Australian Rangeland Society Biennial Conference’. Alice Springs, NT, Australia. (Ed. M. H. Friedel.) 4 pp. (Australian Rangeland Society: Parkside, South Australia.)
Day, K. A., McKeon, G. M., and Carter, J. O. (1997). Evaluating the risks of pasture and land degradation in native pasture in Queensland. Final report for Rural Industries and Research Development Corporation project DAQ124A. (Queensland Department of Natural Resources: Brisbane.) https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/static/publications/DAQ124A_Final.pdf
El Safadi, E. A., Adrot, O., and Flaus, J. M. (2015). Advanced Monte Carlo Method for model uncertainty propagation in risk assessment. IFAC - Papers OnLine 48, 529–534.
| Advanced Monte Carlo Method for model uncertainty propagation in risk assessment.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Fatichi, S., Ivanov, V. Y., and Caporali, E. (2012). Investigating interannual variability of precipitation at the global scale: Is there a connection with seasonality? Journal of Climate 25, 5512–5523.
| Investigating interannual variability of precipitation at the global scale: Is there a connection with seasonality?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Gallant, J. C., McKenzie, N. J., and McBratney, A. B. (2008). Chapter 3: Scale. In: ‘Guidelines for Surveying Soil and Land Resources’. 2nd edn (Eds N. J. McKenzie, M. J. Grundy, R. Webster and A. J. Ringrose-Voase.) pp. 27–43. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne.)
Hall, W. B., McKeon, G. M., Carter, J. O., Day, K. A., Howden, S. M., Scanlan, J. C., Johnston, P. W., and Burrows, W. H. (1998). Climate change in Queensland’s grazing lands: 11. An assessment of the impact on animal production from native pastures. The Rangeland Journal 20, 177–205.
| Climate change in Queensland’s grazing lands: 11. An assessment of the impact on animal production from native pastures.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hassett, R. C., Wood, H. L., Carter, J. O., and Danaher, T. J. (2000). A field method for statewide ground-truthing of a spatial pasture growth model. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 40, 1069–1079.
| A field method for statewide ground-truthing of a spatial pasture growth model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Henry, B., McKeon, G., Syktus, J., Carter, J., Day, K., and Rayner, D. (2007). Climate variability, climate change and land degradation. In: ‘Climate and Land Degradation’. (Eds M. V. K. Sivakumar and N. Ndiang’ui.) pp. 205–221. (Springer: New York.)
Hunt, L. P. (2008). Safe pasture utilisation rates as a grazing management tool in extensively grazed tropical savannas of northern Australia. The Rangeland Journal 30, 305–315.
| Safe pasture utilisation rates as a grazing management tool in extensively grazed tropical savannas of northern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hunt, L. P., McIvor, E. J. G., Grice, A. C., and Bray, S. G. (2014). Principles and guidelines for managing cattle grazing in the grazing lands of northern Australia: stocking rates, pasture resting, prescribed fire, paddock size and water points – a review. The Rangeland Journal 36, 105–119.
| Principles and guidelines for managing cattle grazing in the grazing lands of northern Australia: stocking rates, pasture resting, prescribed fire, paddock size and water points – a review.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Irvine, S. A. (2021). Mapping drought declaration areas from 1936 to 1964 for Queensland, Australia. The Rangeland Journal 43, 109–119.
| Mapping drought declaration areas from 1936 to 1964 for Queensland, Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Irvine, S., and Holloway, C. (2019). Spatial Grazing Land Management Land Types of Queensland: Review and amendments (Version 5.4) – January 2019. Technical Report. Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Queensland.
Johnston, P. W., and Garrad, S. W. (1999). Estimating livestock carrying capacities in south-west Queensland, Australia. In: ‘People and Rangelands, Building the Future. Proceedings of the 6th International Rangeland Congress’. (Eds D. Eldridge and D. Freudenberger.) pp. 861–862. (6th International Rangeland Congress Inc.: Aitkenvale, Qld.)
Johnston, P. W., McKeon, G. M., and Day, K. A. (1996a). Objective ‘safe’ grazing capacities for south-west Queensland Australia: development of a model for individual properties. The Rangeland Journal 18, 244–258.
| Objective ‘safe’ grazing capacities for south-west Queensland Australia: development of a model for individual properties.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Johnston, P. W., Tannock, P. R., and Beale, I. F. (1996b). Objective ‘safe’ grazing capacities for south–west Queensland, Australia: model application and evaluation. The Rangeland Journal 18, 259–269.
| Objective ‘safe’ grazing capacities for south–west Queensland, Australia: model application and evaluation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Martin, T., Murphy, H., Liedloff, A., Thomas, C., Chadès, I., Cook, G., Fensham, R., McIvor, J., and van Klinken, R. (2015). Buffel grass and climate change: a framework for projecting invasive species distributions when data are scarce. Biological Invasions 17, 3197–3210.
| Buffel grass and climate change: a framework for projecting invasive species distributions when data are scarce.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McIvor, J. G., Ash, A. J., and Cook, G. D. (1995). Land condition in the tropical tallgrass pasture lands 1. effects on herbage production. The Rangeland Journal 17, 69–85.
| Land condition in the tropical tallgrass pasture lands 1. effects on herbage production.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McKeon, G., Day, K., Howden, S., Mott, J., Orr, W., Scattini, W., and Weston, E. (1990). Northern Australia savannahs: management for pastoral production. Journal of Biogeography 17, 355–372.
| Northern Australia savannahs: management for pastoral production.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McKeon, G. M., Ash, A. J., Hall, W. B., and Stafford Smith, M. (2000). Simulation of grazing strategies for beef production in north–east Queensland. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – The Australian Experience’. (Eds G. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 227–252. (Kluwer Academic Press: Netherlands.)
McKeon, G., Hall, W., Henry, B., Stone, G., and Watson, I. (2004). Pasture degradation and recovery. In: ‘Australia’s Rangelands: Learning from History’. (Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines, and Energy: Brisbane, Australia.) https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/other-products/learning-from-history/ (accessed 15 December 2020)
McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J., and Day, K. A. (2009). Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues. The Rangeland Journal 31, 1–29.
| Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McKeon, G., Stone, G., Ahrens, D., Carter, J., Cobon, D., Irvine, S., and Syktus, J. (2021). Queensland’s multi-year Wet and Dry periods: implications for grazing enterprises and pasture resources. The Rangeland Journal 43, 121.
| Queensland’s multi-year Wet and Dry periods: implications for grazing enterprises and pasture resources.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
O’Reagain, P. J., and Scanlan, J. C. (2013). Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia. Animal 7, 68–78.
| Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23031187PubMed |
O’Reagain, P., Scanlan, J., Hunt, L., Cowley, R., and Walsh, D. (2014). Sustainable grazing management for temporal and spatial variability in north Australian rangelands – a synthesis of the latest evidence and recommendations. The Rangeland Journal 36, 223–232.
| Sustainable grazing management for temporal and spatial variability in north Australian rangelands – a synthesis of the latest evidence and recommendations.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
O’Reagain, P., Bushell, J., Pahl, L., and Scanlan, J. (2018). Wambiana Grazing Trial Phase 3: Stocking Strategies for Improving Carrying Capacity, Land Condition and Biodiversity Outcomes. Meat and Livestock Australia Final Report to Project B.ERM.0107. Meat & Livestock Australia, North Sydney, NSW.
Papapostolou, C., Kondili, E., and Kaldellis, J. K. (2011). Development and implementation of an optimisation model for biofuels supply chain. Energy 36, 6019–6026.
| Development and implementation of an optimisation model for biofuels supply chain.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Peck, G., Buck, S., Hoffman, A., Holloway, C., Johnson, B., Lawrence, D. N., and Paton, C. J. (2011). Review of productivity decline in sown grass pastures. Project B.NBP.0624 Final Report. Meat and Livestock Australia Limited: North Sydney, NSW.
Peck, G., Buck, S., Johnson, B., and O’Reagain, J. (2017). Improving productivity of rundown sown grass pastures. Volume 1: Project overview, key findings and recommendations. Project B.NBP.0639 Final Report. Meat and Livestock Australia Limited: North Sydney, NSW.
Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy (QDNRME) (2013). Queensland Parcel Identification Standard 2013. SIG/2013/396 Version 4.01 13/02/2018. State of Queensland.
Rickert, K. G., Stuth, J. W., and McKeon, G. M. (2000). Modelling pasture and animal production. In: ‘Field and Laboratory Methods for Grassland and animal Production Research’. (Eds L.’t Mannetje and R. M. Jones.) pp. 29–66. (CABI Publishing: New York.)
Ritter, A., and Muñoz-Carpena, R. (2013). Performance evaluation of hydrological models: statistical significance for reducing subjectivity in goodness-of-fit assessments. Journal of Hydrology 480, 33–45.
| Performance evaluation of hydrological models: statistical significance for reducing subjectivity in goodness-of-fit assessments.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Rocca, P., Oliveri, G., and Massa, A. (2011). Differential Evolution as Applied to Electromagnetics. IEEE Antennas & Propagation Magazine 53, 38–49.
| Differential Evolution as Applied to Electromagnetics.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Scanlan, J. C., and Burrows, W. H. (1990). Woody overstorey impact on herbaceous understorey in Eucalyptus spp. communities in central Queensland. Austral Ecology 15, 191–197.
| Woody overstorey impact on herbaceous understorey in Eucalyptus spp. communities in central Queensland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Scanlan, J. C., McKeon, G. M., Day, K. A., Mott, J. J., and Hinton, A. W. (1994). Estimating safe carrying capacities of extensive cattle grazing properties within tropical, semi-arid woodlands of north-eastern Australia. The Rangeland Journal 16, 64–76.
| Estimating safe carrying capacities of extensive cattle grazing properties within tropical, semi-arid woodlands of north-eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Scanlan, J. C., Pahl, L., Whish, G., Macleod, N., Cowley, R., and Phelps, D. G. (2011). Enhanced adoption of improved grazing and fire management practices in northern Australia: bio-economic analysis and regional assessment of management options. Final report: NBP.0578. Meat and Livestock Australia, Sydney, NSW.
State of Queensland (2019). Land types of Queensland. Version 3.1. Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Brisbane, Qld. https://futurebeef.com.au/knowledge-centre/land-types-of-queensland-conditions-of-use/ (accessed 15 December 2020).
Stone, G. S. (2004). Analysis of grazing pressure from the long-term livestock records of two western Queensland pastoral properties. In: ‘Pasture Degradation and Recovery in Australia’s Rangelands: Learning from History’. (Eds G. M. McKeon, W. B. Hall, B. K. Henry, G. S. Stone and I. W. Watson.) pp. 191–235. (Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy.) Available at: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/other-products/learning-from-history/ (accessed 19 August 2020)
Stone, G., Dalla Pozza, R., Carter, J., and McKeon, G. (2019). Long Paddock: climate risk and grazing information for Australian rangelands and grazing communities. The Rangeland Journal 41, 225–232.
| Long Paddock: climate risk and grazing information for Australian rangelands and grazing communities.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stone, G., Zhang, B., Carter, J., Fraser, G., Whish, G., Paton, C., and McKeon, G. (2021). An online system for calculating and delivering long-term carrying capacity information for Queensland grazing properties. Part 1: background and development. The Rangeland Journal 43, 109–119.
| An online system for calculating and delivering long-term carrying capacity information for Queensland grazing properties. Part 1: background and development.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Whish, G. L., and Holloway, C. (2016). An innovative approach to derive long-term carrying capacity estimates for extensive grazing properties in Queensland. In: ‘Proceedings of the Northern Beef Research Update Conference 2016’. p. 104. (Northern Australia Beef Research Council: Gympie, Qld, Australia.)
Whish, G., Pahl, L., and Holloway, C. (2016). Stage 1 – NRM SPATIAL HUB – underpinning better management decisions in the Rangelands INNOV-068-SISR-DAFF. Final Report. Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Brisbane, Queensland. Available at: http://era.daf.qld.gov.au/id/eprint/5673/ (accessed 15 December 2020).
Zhang, B., and Carter, J. (2018). FORAGE – An online system for generating and delivering property-scale decision support information for grazing land and environmental management. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 150, 302–311.
| FORAGE – An online system for generating and delivering property-scale decision support information for grazing land and environmental management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Zhang, L., Potter, N., Hickel, K., Zhang, Y., and Shao, Q. (2008). Water balance modeling over variable time scales based on the Budyko framework–Model development and testing. Journal of Hydrology 360, 117–131.
| Water balance modeling over variable time scales based on the Budyko framework–Model development and testing.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
