Climate change and conservation policies in Australia: coping with change that is far away and not yet certain

Abstract

Projected changes in temperature and precipitation as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect suggest that climatic zones could shift several hundred kilometres towards the poles and several hundred metres upwards in elevation over the next 50 years. The potential consequences of such changes for sustainability of natural populations are enormous due to both physiological stresses on individuals and changes in competitive regimes. Despite this, few positive policy initiatives have yet been undertaken in Australia to mitigate the changes for Australia's flora and fauna. Climate change is generally perceived as a distant problem and the uncertainties surrounding the magnitude and rate of changes, especially at a regional scale, have encouraged a wait-and-see approach. In this paper we summarize some of the likely consequences for Australia's native species and outline five directions in which vigorous action is needed within this decade if we are to ameliorate the effects of future climate changes. Four of the five directions are already recognized as important conservation strategies, and more vigorous action is a matter of overcoming political and administrative impediments. The fifth strategy is to transplant selected long-lived, habitat-structuring, plant species into their estimated future climate envelopes, beginning now in order to give them time to develop as future habitat. Such a transplantation programme implies deliberately creating novel species-mixtures, as well as increasing gene flow between related species that previously were geographically separated. While many conservationists will oppose such a transplantation programme, in the name of "community integrity", it is possible that the damage done by transplanting is likely to be less than the damage done by inaction. Among the purposes of this paper is to open a debate on the scientific issues relating to a transplantation programme, because it is now urgent to conduct that debate and to resolve it.