Reptiles on the brink: identifying the Australian terrestrial snake and lizard species most at risk of extinction
Hayley M. Geyle
A , Reid Tingley B , Andrew P. Amey C , Hal Cogger D , Patrick J. Couper C , Mark Cowan E , Michael D. Craig F G , Paul Doughty H , Don A. Driscoll I , Ryan J. Ellis H J , Jon-Paul Emery F , Aaron Fenner K , Michael G. Gardner K L , Stephen T. Garnett A , Graeme R. Gillespie M , Matthew J. Greenlees N , Conrad J. Hoskin O , J. Scott Keogh P , Ray Lloyd Q , Jane Melville R , Peter J. McDonald S , Damian R. Michael T , Nicola J. Mitchell F , Chris Sanderson U V , Glenn M. Shea W X , Joanna Sumner R , Erik Wapstra Y , John C. Z. Woinarski A and David G. Chapple B Z
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Threatened Species Recovery Hub, National Environmental Science Program, Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, NT 0909, Australia.
B School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Vic. 3800, Australia.
C Biodiversity Program, Queensland Museum, South Brisbane, Qld 4101, Australia.
D Australian Museum, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia.
E Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, WA 6151, Australia.
F School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
G School of Veterinary and Life Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia.
H Department of Terrestrial Zoology, Western Australian Museum, Welshpool, WA 6106, Australia.
I Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Vic. 3125, Australia.
J Biologic Environmental Survey, East Perth, WA 6004, Australia.
K College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA 5042, Australia.
L Evolutionary Biology Unit, South Australian Museum, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia.
M Flora and Fauna Division, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Palmerston, NT 0830, Australia.
N Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia.
O College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.
P Division of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
Q FaunaTrack, Denmark, WA 6333, Australia.
R Sciences Department, Museums Victoria, Carlton, Vic. 3053, Australia.
S SPREP Pacific Environment, Samoa.
T Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, Albury, NSW 2640, Australia.
U School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.
V Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, 46 Sullivans Creek Road, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia.
W Sydney School of Veterinary Science, B01, Faculty of Science, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
X Australian Museum Research Institute, Australian Museum, 1 William Street, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia.
Y School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas. 7005, Australia.
Z Corresponding author. Email: David.Chapple@monash.edu
Pacific Conservation Biology - https://doi.org/10.1071/PC20033
Submitted: 8 April 2020 Accepted: 16 July 2020 Published online: 3 September 2020
Abstract
Australia hosts approximately 10% of the world’s reptile species, the largest number of any country. Despite this and evidence of widespread decline, the first comprehensive assessment of the conservation status of Australian terrestrial squamates (snakes and lizards) was undertaken only recently. Here we apply structured expert elicitation to the 60 species assessed to be in the highest IUCN threat categories to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also assessed the probability of successful reintroduction for two Extinct in the Wild (EW) Christmas Island species with trial reintroductions underway. Collation and analysis of expert opinion indicated that six species are at high risk (>50%) of becoming extinct within the next 20 years, and up to 11 species could be lost within this timeframe unless management improves. The consensus among experts was that neither of the EW species were likely to persist outside of small fenced areas without a significant increase in resources for intense threat management. The 20 most imperilled species are all restricted in range, with three occurring only on islands. The others are endemic to a single state, with 55% occurring in Queensland. Invasive species (notably weeds and introduced predators) were the most prevalent threats, followed by agriculture, natural system modifications (primarily fire) and climate change. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert the impending extinction of Australia’s imperilled terrestrial reptiles.
Additional keywords: anthropogenic mass extinction crisis, Australia, biodiversity conservation, Delphi, expert elicitation, IDEA, lizard, reptile, snake, squamate, terrestrial, threatening processes.
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