Quantifying extinction risk and forecasting the number of impending Australian bird and mammal extinctions
Hayley M. Geyle A T , John C. Z. Woinarski A , G. Barry Baker B , Chris R. Dickman C , Guy Dutson D , Diana O. Fisher E , Hugh Ford F , Mark Holdsworth G , Menna E. Jones H , Alex Kutt I J K , Sarah Legge A L , Ian Leiper A , Richard Loyn M N O , Brett P. Murphy A , Peter Menkhorst P , April E. Reside L , Euan G. Ritchie Q , Finley E. Roberts R , Reid Tingley S and Stephen T. Garnett AA Threatened Species Recovery Hub, National Environmental Science Program, Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, NT 0909, Australia.
B Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, The University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas. 7005, Australia.
C Threatened Species Recovery Hub, National Environmental Science Program, Desert Ecology Research Group, School of Life and Environmental Sciences A08, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
D Yellow Gum Drive, Ocean Grove, Vic. 3226, Australia.
E School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.
F School of Environmental and Rural Sciences, The University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia.
G Forest Hill Wildlife Consultants, Sandford, Tas. 7020, Australia.
H School of Natural Resources (Biological Sciences), The University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas. 7005, Australia.
I School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3010, Australia.
J Green Fire Science, School of Earth and Environmental Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.
K Bush Heritage Australia, Melbourne, Vic. 3000, Australia.
L Threatened Species Recovery Hub, National Environmental Science Program, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.
M The Murray–Darling Freshwater Research Centre, School of Life Sciences, La Trobe University, Wodonga, Vic. 3690, Australia.
N Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, Albury, NSW 2640, Australia.
O Eco Insights, Beechworth, Vic. 3747, Australia.
P Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, Vic. 3084, Australia.
Q Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Vic. 3125, Australia.
R Forest Fire and Regions, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, East Melbourne, Vic. 3002, Australia.
S Quantitative and Applied Ecology Group, School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3010, Australia.
T Corresponding author. Email: hayley.geyle@cdu.edu.au
Pacific Conservation Biology 24(2) 157-167 https://doi.org/10.1071/PC18006
Submitted: 17 January 2018 Accepted: 4 March 2018 Published: 20 April 2018
Journal compilation © CSIRO 2018 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
A critical step towards reducing the incidence of extinction is to identify and rank the species at highest risk, while implementing protective measures to reduce the risk of extinction to such species. Existing global processes provide a graded categorisation of extinction risk. Here we seek to extend and complement those processes to focus more narrowly on the likelihood of extinction of the most imperilled Australian birds and mammals. We considered an extension of existing IUCN and NatureServe criteria, and used expert elicitation to rank the extinction risk to the most imperilled species, assuming current management. On the basis of these assessments, and using two additional approaches, we estimated the number of extinctions likely to occur in the next 20 years. The estimates of extinction risk derived from our tighter IUCN categorisations, NatureServe assessments and expert elicitation were poorly correlated, with little agreement among methods for which species were most in danger – highlighting the importance of integrating multiple approaches when considering extinction risk. Mapped distributions of the 20 most imperilled birds reveal that most are endemic to islands or occur in southern Australia. The 20 most imperilled mammals occur mostly in northern and central Australia. While there were some differences in the forecasted number of extinctions in the next 20 years among methods, all three approaches predict further species loss. Overall, we estimate that another seven Australian mammals and 10 Australian birds will be extinct by 2038 unless management improves.
Additional keywords: Anthropocene mass extinction crisis, biodiversity conservation, threatened species
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