The expected impact of climate change on nitrogen losses from wet tropical sugarcane production in the Great Barrier Reef region

A. J. Webster; P. J. Thorburn; P. C. Roebeling; H. L. Horan; J. S. Biggs

doi:10.1071/MF08348

RESEARCH ARTICLE

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The expected impact of climate change on nitrogen losses from wet tropical sugarcane production in the Great Barrier Reef region

A. J. Webster ^A ^D , P. J. Thorburn ^B , P. C. Roebeling ^C , H. L. Horan ^B and J. S. Biggs ^B

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems and Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, PO Box 12139, Earlville BC, Cairns, Qld 4870, Australia.

^B CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems and Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, 306 Carmody Road, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia.

^C CESAM – University of Avenueiro, Deparment of Environment, 3810-193 Avenueiro, Portugal.

^D Corresponding author. Email: tony.webster@csiro.au

Marine and Freshwater Research 60(11) 1159-1164 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF08348
Submitted: 17 December 2008 Accepted: 27 July 2009 Published: 17 November 2009

Abstract

The Great Barrier Reef is under threat from diffuse agricultural pollutants and potential climate change. Nitrogen loads are examined using the nitrogen surplus of simulated sugarcane production systems in the Tully–Murray catchment, comparing current management practice regimes with best management practice regimes under present day and future climate scenarios – nominally 2030 and 2070. These future scenarios are represented by increased carbon dioxide, increased temperature and increased rainfall variability. Simulation results suggest that the impact of potential climate change on diffuse agricultural nitrogen loads from sugarcane production in the Tully–Murray catchment to the Great Barrier Reef is likely to be small and negligible in comparison to the impacts of management practice change. Partial gross margin analysis suggests climate change will not noticeably alter the profitability of sugarcane production and, hence, is unlikely to be a driver of change for this land use in the Tully–Murray catchment. Improvements in water quality from sugarcane production are more likely to come from identification and adoption of best management practices.

Additional keywords: agriculture, APSIM, crop model, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, modelling, nitrogen surplus, wet tropics.

Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the Cardwell Shire Floodplain Committee, the Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility and Terrain-NRM Ltd for facilitating and funding this research. We also thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments on an earlier version of this manuscript.

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