Register      Login
Marine and Freshwater Research Marine and Freshwater Research Society
Advances in the aquatic sciences
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Practical uses of non-parametric methods in fisheries assessment modelling

R. M. Hillary
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia. Email: rich.hillary@csiro.au

Marine and Freshwater Research 63(7) 606-615 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF12031
Submitted: 31 January 2012  Accepted: 30 April 2012   Published: 29 June 2012

Abstract

The vast majority of fisheries stock assessment modelling is parametric, where specific models are assumed and fitted to data, the results of which are used to assess stock status and provide scientific advice. Often, the assumed models may not acceptably explain the data, or the data are not informative enough to estimate the parameters of even the most simple models. Using a fully inferential statistical framework, artificial neural networks were fitted to example data sets (stock-recruit, catch and relative abundance) and key assessment quantities such as maximum sustainable yield and relative biomass depletion were estimated. The combination of flexibility and statistical rigor suggests there is an as yet under-utilised role for such approaches in stock assessment, and not just in data-poor scenarios.

Additional keywords: non-parametric modelling, neural networks, stock assessment.


References

Chen, D. G., and Ware, D. M. (1999). A neural network model for forecasting fish stock recruitment. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 56, 2385–2396.

Chen, D. G., and Hare, S. R. (2006). Neural network and fuzzy logic models for pacific halibut recruitment analysis. Ecological Modelling 195, 11–19.

De Oliveira, J. A. A., and Butterworth, D. S. (2004). Developing and refining a joint management procedure for the multispecies South African pelagic fishery. ICES Journal of Marine Science 61, 1432–1442.

Gaertner, D., and Dreyfus-Leon, M. (2004). Analysis of non-linear relationships between catch per unit effort and abundance in a tuna purse-seine fishery simulated with artificial neural networks. ICES Journal of Marine Science 61, 812–820.

Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Rubin D. B. (2006) ‘Bayesian Data Analysis.’ 2nd Edn. (Chapman and Hall: New York, US).

Glaser, S. M., Ye, H., Maunder, M., MacCall, A., Fogarty, M., and Sugihara, G. (2011). Detecting and forecasting complex nonlinear dynamics in spatially structured catch-per-unit-effort time series for North Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 68, 400–412.

Hampton, J., and Fournier, D. (2001). A spatially disaggregated, length-based, age-structured population model of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western and central Pacific Ocean. Marine and Freshwater Research 52, 937–963.

Hardy, R. L. (1971). Multiquadric equations of topography and other irregular surfaces. Journal of Geophysical Research 76, 1906–1915.

Haykin, S. (1994) ‘Neural Networks. A Comprehensive Foundation.’ (Macmillan College Publishing: New York.)

Hilborn R. and Walters, C. J. (1992) ‘Quantitative Fisheries Stock Assessment: Choice, Dynamics and Uncertainty.’ 1st edn. (Chapman & Hall: London.)

Hillary, R. M. (2008). Surplus production analyses for Indian Ocean yellowfin and bigeye tuna. Working Party for Tropical Tuna in the Indian Ocean , .

Hoerl, A. E., and Kennard, R. W. (1970). Ridge regression: Biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 42, 80–86.

Hoshino, E., Hillary, R. M., and Pearce, J. (2011). Economically optimal management strategies for the South Georgia patagonian toothfish fishery. Marine Resource Economics 25, 265–280.

ICES-HAWG (2011) Report of the Herring Assessment Working Group for the Area South of 62 N. ACOM, ICES, Copenhaen, Denmark.

Kass, R. E., and Raferty, A. E. (1995). Bayes factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90, 773–795.

McAllister, M. K., Pikitch, E. K., and Babcock, E. A. (2001). Using demographic methods to construct Bayesian priors for the intrinsic rate of increase in the Schaefer model and implications for stock rebuilding. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58, 1871–1890.

Megrey, B. A., Lee, Y.-W., and Macklin, S. A. (2005). Comparative analysis of statistical tools to identify recruitment-environment relationships and forecast recruitment strength. ICES Journal of Marine Science 62, 1256–1269.

Meng, X.-L. (1994). Posterior predictive p-values. The Annals of Statistics 22, 1142–1160.

Munch, S. B., Kottas, A., and Mangel, M. (2005). Bayesian nonparametric analysis of stock-recruitment relationships. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 62, 1808–1821.

Pomarede, M., Hillary, R. M., Ibaibarriaga, L., Bogaards, J., and Apostolaki, P. (2010). Evaluating the performance of survey-based operational management procedures. Aquatic Living Resources 23, 77–94.

Powell, M. J. D. (1987) Radial basis functions for multivariable interpolation: a review. In ‘Algorithms for Approximation.’ (Eds J. C. Mason & M. G. Cox.) pp. 143–167. (Clarendon Press: Oxford, UK.)

Prince, J. D., Dowling, N. A., Davies, C. R., Campbell, R. A., and Kolody, D. S. (2011). A simple cost-effective and scale-less empirical approach to harvest strategies. ICES Journal of Marine Science 68, 947–960.

Rademeyer, R. A., Plaganyi, E. E., and Butterworth, D. S. (2007). Tips and tricks in designing management procedures. ICES Journal of Marine Science 64, 618–625.

Ripley, B. D. (1996) ‘Pattern Recognition and Neural Networks’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.)

Ripley, B. D. (1997) Can statistics help us use neural networks better? In ‘Proceedings of Interface 97. 29 th Symposium on the Interface: Computing Science and Statistics’.

Smith, A. D. M., Smith, D. C., Tuck, G. N., Klaer, N., Punt, A. E., Knuckey, I., Prince, J., Morison, A., Kloser, R., Haddon, M., Wayte, S., Day, J., Fay, G., Pribac, F., Fuller, M., Taylor, B., and Little, L. R. (2008). Experience in implementing harvest strategies in Australia’s south-eastern fisheries. Fisheries Research 94, 373–379.

Suryanarayana, I., Braibanti, A., Rao, R. S., Ramam, V. A., Sudarsan, D., and Rao, G. N. (2008). Neural networks in fisheries research. Fisheries Research 92, 115–139.

Trenkel, V. M., and Rochet, M.-J. (2010). Combining time trends in multiple metrics for identifying persistent changes in population processes or environmental stressors. Journal of Applied Ecology 47, 751–758.

Walters, C. J. (2003). Folly and fantasy in the analysis of spatial catch rate data. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 60, 1433–1436.

Wilberg, M. J., and Bence, J. R. (2006). Performance of time-varying catchability estimators in statistical catch-at-age analysis. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 63, 2275–2285.

Wood, S. N. (2011). Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 73, 3–36.

Zhou, S. (2003). Application of artificial neural networks for forecasting salmon escapement. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 23, 48–59.
| 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXis1Omsbc%3D&md5=35ae84149ca72e810863179f97ae3648CAS |