Climate-change induced tropicalisation of marine communities in Western Australia
William W. L. Cheung A F , Jessica J. Meeuwig B C , Ming Feng D , Euan Harvey B E , Vicky W. Y. Lam A , Tim Langlois B E , Dirk Slawinski C , Chaojiao Sun D and Daniel Pauly A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Fisheries Centre, AERL, 2202 Main Mall, The University of British Columbia, BC, Canada, V6T 1Z4.
B Ocean Institute, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
C Centre for Marine Futures, Oceans Institute and School of Animal Biology, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
D CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Environment and Life Sciences, Underwood Avenue, Floreat, WA 6014, Australia.
E School of Plant Science, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
F Corresponding author. Email: w.cheung@fisheries.ubc.ca
Marine and Freshwater Research 63(5) 415-427 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF11205
Submitted: 9 September 2011 Accepted: 19 January 2012 Published: 4 May 2012
Abstract
A major observed and predicted impact of climate change on marine species is the poleward shift in their distributions and the resulting changes in community structure. Here, we used a Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model to project range shift of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates in Western Australia. We combined published data and expert knowledge to predict current species distributions for 30 tropical, sub-tropical and temperate species that occur along the coast of Western Australia. Using outputs from both a Regional Oceanographic Model and a Global Circulation Model, we simulated change in the distribution of each species. Our study shows that under the SRES (Special Report for Emission Scenarios) A1B scenario, the median rate of distribution shift is around 19 km decade–1 towards higher latitudes and 9 m deeper decade–1 by 2055 relative to 2005. As a result, species gains and losses are expected along the south coast and north coast of Western Australia, respectively. Also, the coast of Western Australia is expected to experience a ‘tropicalisation’ of the marine community in the future, with increasing dominance of warmer-water species. Such changes in species assemblages may have large ecological and socio-economic implications through shifts in fishing grounds and unexpected trophic effects.
Additional keywords: distribution shift, dynamic bioclimate envelope model, marine climate change, Western Australia.
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