Recent advances in the modelling of earthquake hazard in Australia: part 2 ? estimating the hazard

Abstract

This paper is the second of two companion papers that describe recent advances in the modelling of earthquake hazard in Australia. Earthquake hazard is a function of the source, attenuation and site response models which have been described in Part 1. Part 2 describes how these models are integrated to estimate the earthquake hazard. Estimating the hazard leads to a better understanding of the risk posed by earthquakes and assists in the management of risk. The paper concludes with an application to the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie region, NSW where the new estimates of hazard are larger than those previously predicted. The attenuation and site response models used in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie both include measures of variability. Variability is incorporated by allowing random variation about the median attenuation and site response models. The results also demonstrate that the presence of regolith increases the earthquake hazard in the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie region.