Projected acute inpatient activity in New South Wales — aIM2005

Abstract

Objectives: To describe the statewide projections of acute inpatient activity in New South Wales. Methods: Data on acute inpatient activity in NSW for the period 1998?1999 to 2003?04 were derived from the Admitted Patient Data Collection. Regression analysis was used to project trends in utilisation and length of stay by age group, clinical specialty groups and stay type (day-only and overnight). The projected separation rates and length of stay were subject to clinical review. Projected separation rates (by age group, clinical speciality and stay type) were applied to NSW population projections to derive the projected number of separations. Bed-days were calculated by applying projected overnight average length of stay. Results: Total acute inpatient activity in NSW public hospitals is projected to increase from around 1.05 million separations in 2004 to around 1.3 million separations by 2017 (24%). Same-day separations are projected to increase from around 368 000 to around 514 000 (40%). Overnight separations are projected to rise from around 690 000 in 2003?04 to around 798 000 in 2016?17 (18%). Overnight bed-days are projected to increase from around 3.7 million in 2003?04 to around 4.1 million bed-days in 2017 (12%). Differences across age groups and clinical specialties are also evident from the modelling.