Fire regimes drive population trends of a threatened lizard in the central and western deserts of Australia

Darren M. Southwell; Danae Moore; Steve McAlpin; Edward M. J. Blackwood; Andrew Schubert; Adam S. Smart; Samuel D. Merson; Margarita Goumas; Nicholas A. Macgregor; Rachel M. Paltridge

doi:10.1071/WR24135

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Next Contents Vol 52(4)

Fire regimes drive population trends of a threatened lizard in the central and western deserts of Australia

Darren M. Southwell

^A ^B ^* , Danae Moore ^C , Steve McAlpin ^D , Edward M. J. Blackwood

^E , Andrew Schubert ^F , Kiwirrkurra Rangers ^G , Adam S. Smart ^A ^B , Samuel D. Merson ^H , Margarita Goumas ^H , Nicholas A. Macgregor

^H ^I and Rachel M. Paltridge ^B ^J

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Conservation Science Research Group, School of Environmental and Life Science, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2302, Australia.

^B Resilient Landscapes Hub, National Environmental Science Program, Perth, WA, Australia.

^C Australian Wildlife Conservancy, PO Box 161, Alice Springs, NT 0871, Australia.

^D Independent Researcher, Darwin, NT, Australia.

^E Desert Support Services, Kiwirrkurra Ranger Program, Kiwirrkurra Community, PMB 83, Alice Springs, NT 0870 Australia.

^F Desert Wildlife Services, PO Box 4002, Alice Springs, NT 0871, Australia.

^G Desert Support Services, 575 Newcastle Street, West Perth, WA 6005, Australia.

^H Parks Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

^I Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology (DICE), University of Kent, Canterbury, UK.

^J Indigenous Desert Alliance, Alice Springs, NT, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: darren.southwell@newcastle.edu.au

Handling Editor: Sarah Legge

Wildlife Research 52, WR24135 https://doi.org/10.1071/WR24135

Submitted: 19 August 2024 Accepted: 28 February 2025 Published: 20 March 2025

© 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Context

Animal and plant populations in arid regions fluctuate in size and extent in response to rainfall, fire and predation. Understanding the influence of these drivers on the status and trends of populations is crucial to implementing effective conservation actions.

Aims

In this study, we quantified the long-term drivers and trends in populations of a threatened lizard, the great desert skink (Liopholis kintorei; Tjakura), in the central and western deserts of Australia.

Methods

We collated 23 years (2002–2023) of active Tjakuṟa burrow count data from 31 sites clustered in the following four regions: Yulara, Newhaven Wildlife Sanctuary, Uluṟu–Kata Tjuṯa National Park and Kiwirrkurra Indigenous Protected Area. We fitted a negative binomial regression model in a Bayesian framework to estimate trends in active burrow counts over time and quantified the effect of rainfall, mean annual normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), time since fire and fire extent on active burrow counts.

Key results

Our results showed contrasting trends in Tjakuṟa active burrow counts across the four regions. At Kiwirrkurra, Newhaven Wildlife Sanctuary and Yulara, active burrow counts increased consistently at rates of 35% (0.298; 95% CI 0.099–0.471), 18% (0.168; 95% CI 0.029, 0.314) and 5% per year (0.045; 95% CI 0.017, 0.073) respectively. In contrast, active burrow counts in Uluṟu–Kata Tjuṯa National Park increased from 2002 to 2012 before steadily decreasing. Across all sites, fire was the most important predictor of active Tjakuṟa burrow counts, with a significant positive effect of time since fire (0.108; 95% CI 0.014–0.204) and a strong negative effect of fire extent in the previous year (−0.111; 95% CI −0.243 to −0.026).

Conclusions

Our results have highlighted the importance of delivering ongoing planned fire management programs that avoid burning vegetation directly at and around Tjakura burrow systems, while providing a patch mosaic across the surrounding landscape.

Implications

We recommend that monitoring of Tjakura burrows be standardised across regions and that site covariates, especially measures of predation pressure, be monitored to further understand drivers of population trends.

Keywords: arid zone, burrow counts, fire regime, great desert skink, long-term monitoring, population modelling, Tjakura, wildfire.

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