Is the relationship between predator and prey abundances related to climate for lynx and snowshoe hares?
Jim Hone A D , Charles J. Krebs A B and Mark O’Donoghue C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
B Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
C Yukon Fish and Wildlife Branch, PO Box 310 Mayo, Yukon YOB 1MO, Canada.
D Corresponding author. Email: Jim.Hone@canberra.edu.au
Wildlife Research 38(5) 419-425 https://doi.org/10.1071/WR11009
Submitted: 17 January 2011 Accepted: 9 August 2011 Published: 12 October 2011
Abstract
Context: Predator dynamics may be related to prey abundance and influenced by environmental effects, such as climate. Predator–prey interactions may be represented by mechanistic models that comprise a deterministic skeleton with stochastic climatic forcing.
Aims: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate on predator–prey dynamics. The lynx and snowshoe hare predator–prey system in the Kluane region of the Yukon, Canada, is used as a case study. The specific hypothesis is that climate influences the relationship between lynx and hare abundance.
Methods: We evaluate 10 linear relationships between predator and prey abundance and effects of climate. We use data on lynx and snowshoe hare abundance over 21 years in the Yukon as the predator–prey system, and three alternative broad-scale climate indices: the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North American (PNA) index and the North Pacific index (NPI).
Key results: There was more support, as assessed by Akaike weights (ωi = 0.600), evidence ratio (=4.73) and R2 (=0.77) for a model of predator (lynx) and prior prey (hare) abundance with an effect of prior climate (winter NAO) when combined in a multiplicative, rather than in an additive, manner. The results infer that climate changes the amplitude of the lynx cycle with lower predator (lynx) abundance with positive values of winter NAO for a given hare density.
Conclusions: The study provides evidence that predator–prey dynamics are related to climate in an interactive manner. The ecological mechanism for the interactive effect is not clear, and alternative hypotheses are proposed for future evaluation.
Implications: The study implies that changes in climate may alter predator–prey relationships.
Additional keywords: climate change, Lynx canadensis, North Atlantic Oscillation, population dynamics, predator–prey models.
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