Identification and interpretation of sources of uncertainty in soils change in a global systems-based modelling process
N. J. Robinson A C , K. K. Benke B D and S. Norng B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Faculty of Science and Technology, Federation University, University Drive, Mt Helen, Vic. 3350, Australia.
B Department of Environment and Primary Industries (DEPI), Parkville Centre, 32 Lincoln Square North, Parkville, Vic. 3052, Australia.
C Department of Environment and Primary Industries (DEPI), Bendigo Centre, Cnr Midland Highway and Taylor Street, Epsom, Vic. 3554, Australia.
D Corresponding author. Email: kurt.benke@depi.vic.gov.au
Soil Research 53(6) 592-604 https://doi.org/10.1071/SR14239
Submitted: 29 August 2014 Accepted: 3 March 2015 Published: 11 September 2015
Abstract
In the past, uncertainty analysis in soil research was often reduced to consideration of statistical variation in numerical data relating to model parameters, model inputs or field measurements. The simplified conceptual approach used by modellers in calibration studies can be misleading, because it relates mainly to error minimisation in regression analysis and is reductionist in nature. In this study, a large number of added uncertainties are identified in a more comprehensive attention to the problem. Uncertainties in soil analysis include errors in geometry, position and polygon attributes. The impacts of multiple error sources are described, including covariate error, model error and laboratory analytical error. In particular, the distinction is made between statistical variability (aleatory uncertainty) and lack of information (epistemic uncertainty). Examples of experimental uncertainty analysis are provided and discussed, including reference to error disaggregation and geostatistics, and a systems-based analytic framework is proposed. It is concluded that a more comprehensive and global approach to uncertainty analysis is needed, especially in the context of developing a future soils modelling process for incorporation of all known sources of uncertainty.
Additional keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, soils, uncertainty analysis.
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