Impacts on agriculture

Abstract

p>Agricultural production in Victoria includes the dairy, lamb and mutton, grains and perennial and annual horticultural sectors, with Victorian farmers contributing a major proportion of the Australian production total in many of these sectors. All these industries are exposed in different ways to weather and climate extremes. With projected warming of approximately 0.8°C by 2030 and by 1.4–2.7°C by 2070 (emissions dependent), and most climate models indicating reduced rainfall for the Victorian region (median of model results projecting a reduction of 4% by 2030 and 6%–11% by 2070; emissions dependent), a range of sectorspecific impacts could result. Increases in extreme events, such as heatwaves (e.g. for Mildura, days >35°C could nearly double from 32 to 59 annually by 2070), bushfires and drought, as well as an increased chance of extreme rainfall are all anticipated. Increasing frequencies of extreme events have the potential to affect agricultural production more than changes to the mean climate. For example, the exceptional heatwave that occurred in south-eastern Australia during January and February 2009 resulted in unprecedented impacts, with significant heat-stress related crop losses reported at many sites. Flooding in 2011 was also very costly to Victorian farmers with many crops being lost in the floodwaters and reduced agricultural production costing an estimated Au$500–600 million. Responses to climate variability already practised by the farming sector will inform some adaptation options that will assist farmers to cope in an increasingly challenging environment. As well as taking advantage of their underlying resilience, initiatives aimed at increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers are being implemented at many levels in agricultural communities.