The substitution effect of grass-fed livestock products on grain-fed livestock products from the perspective of supply-side reform in China
Huilong Lin A B , Xiaoyu Xiong A , Yifan Liu A , Yuting Zhao A , Rong Tang A and Charles Nyandwi A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems; Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs; College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China.
B Corresponding author. Email: linhuilong@lzu.edu.cn
The Rangeland Journal 43(6) 377-387 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ20072
Submitted: 17 July 2020 Accepted: 18 December 2020 Published: 10 March 2021
Abstract
Clarification of the direction of China’s future agricultural structural transformation is important, particularly by analysing the dynamic characteristics of upgrading the food consumption structure, especially the relationship between grain and grass-fed livestock products, and by predicting future food consumption patterns. Based on the food equivalent unit (FEU) and the arable land equivalent unit (ALEU), characteristics of meat consumption elasticity across China and between regions were analysed using the extend linear expenditure system for national meat consumption elasticity and regional changes. Similarly, in addition to the substitution effect of grass-fed livestock products on grain-fed livestock products, the prediction of the future gap in demand for grass-fed livestock products was explored. Results indicated that: (1) from 2005 to 2012, the per-capita food consumption on average has stabilised at 460 kg FEU per year. The consumption of grain-fed livestock products is stable, and that for grass-fed livestock products has increased dramatically since 2000; (2) there is a substitution effect of consumption of grass-fed on consumption of grain-fed livestock products on individual and regional scales; (3) By 2035, the overall demand gap for future grass-fed livestock products in China will be 1.14 × 1010 kg, and the main demand will be in grain farming areas. Based on the aggregated advantage index of each region, the seven grassland ecological-economic regions are divided into three priority groups for grassland agricultural development.
Keywords: China, food security, meat products, food consumption trends, trend prediction, grassland agriculture, regional allocation.
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