Response of potential grassland vegetation to historical and future climate change in Inner Mongolia
Xiaoni Liu A B E , Qiang Li A B , Hongxia Wang A , Zhengcao Ren B C , Guoxing He A B , Degang Zhang A B , Tianhu Han A D , Bin Sun D , Dongrong Pan D and Tong Ji A B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A College of Grassland Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, China.
B Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecology System (Gansu Agricultural University), Ministry of Education, Lanzhou 730070, China.
C College of Finance and Economics, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
D Gansu Grassland Techniques Extension Station, Lanzhou 730070, China.
E Corresponding author. Email: liuxn@gsau.edu.cn
The Rangeland Journal 43(6) 329-338 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ20108
Submitted: 4 November 2020 Accepted: 25 April 2021 Published: 5 July 2021
Abstract
Assessing current and potential future grassland vegetation types and distribution has important practical implications in grassland management. In this study, historical and projected climate data from Inner Mongolia were used to classify grassland classes for two historical (1960–1986 and 1986–2011) and two future periods (2021–2024 and 2041–2060) using the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS). Changes of grassland classes in these time periods were investigated. The results indicated that (1) using the CSCS provided an efficient approach to investigate the impact of historical and future climate on grassland classes and their distribution in Inner Mongolia over time and space; (2) since 1986, the precipitation in Inner Mongolia has declined, decreasing the semi-humid zone area and expanding that of arid and semi-arid areas. The area of Tundra and alpine steppe, Temperate zonal humid grassland and Temperate zonal forest steppe decreased, and that of Frigid desert, Semi-desert, and Steppe group increased; and (3) under the projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation in large areas in Inner Mongolia by 2060, the area of arid grassland classes will likely expand (Frigid desert, Semi-desert, and Steppe), and the grassland classes of Tundra and alpine steppe may gradually disappear. Government investment in infrastructure and grassland management measures such as introducing drought tolerant grass species and improved precipitation utilisation through irrigation are needed to adapt to the changing climate. Inner Mongolia should take advantage of the benefits of the increase in temperature in the eastern semi-humid region that would permit reduced grazing pressure in the western arid region.
Keywords: comprehensive and sequential classification system (CSCS), grassland class, multiple regression and residues, I-AMMRR, spatial modelling, Mongolia, sustainable management, frigid desert, semi- desert, steppe.
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