Influence of climatic factors on variation in the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index in Mongolian Plateau grasslands
Xu-Juan Cao A B , Qing-Zhu Gao A B , Ganjurjav Hasbagan A B , Yan Liang A B , Wen-Han Li A B and Guo-Zheng Hu A B C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Science, Beijing 100081, China.
B Key Laboratory for Agro-Environment and Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China.
C Corresponding author. Email: huguozheng@caas.cn
The Rangeland Journal 40(2) 91-100 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ16073
Submitted: 2 August 2016 Accepted: 15 August 2017 Published: 24 October 2017
Abstract
Climate change will affect how the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which is correlated with climate factors, varies in space and over time. The Mongolian Plateau is an arid and semi-arid area, 64% covered by grassland, which is extremely sensitive to climate change. Its climate has shown a warming and drying trend at both annual and seasonal scales. We analysed NDVI and climate variation characteristics and the relationships between them for Mongolian Plateau grasslands from 1981 to 2013. The results showed spatial and temporal differences in the variation of NDVI. Precipitation showed the strongest correlation with NDVI (43% of plateau area correlated with total annual precipitation and 44% with total precipitation in the growing season, from May to September), followed by potential evapotranspiration (27% annual, and 30% growing season), temperature (7% annual, 16% growing season) and cloud cover (10% annual, 12% growing season). These findings confirm that moisture is the most important limiting factor for grassland vegetation growth on the Mongolian Plateau. Changes in land use help to explain variations in NDVI in 40% of the plateau, where no correlation with climate factors was found. Our results indicate that vegetation primary productivity will decrease if warming and drying trends continue but decreases will be less substantial if further warming, predicted as highly likely, is not accompanied by further drying, for which predictions are less certain. Continuing spatial and temporal variability can be expected, including as a result of land use changes.
Additional keywords: climate variation, cloud, GIMMS, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature.
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