Register      Login
The Rangeland Journal The Rangeland Journal Society
Journal of the Australian Rangeland Society
Shopping Cart: ( empty )
You are here: Home > Journals > RJ > RJ07025
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 30(3)

Australian rainfall patterns and the southern oscillation. 2. A regional perspective in relation to Luni-solar (Mn) and Solar-cycle (Sc) signals

R. G. Vines
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

Formerly: CSIRO Division of Forest Research, Private Bag 10, Clayton, Vic. 3168, Australia; Present address: 15 Stanley Grove, Canterbury, Vic. 3126, Australia. Email: plessons@netspace.net.au

The Rangeland Journal 30(3) 349-359 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ07025
Submitted: 1 April 2007  Accepted: 17 September 2008   Published: 30 October 2008

Abstract

This investigation is an extension of earlier work on rainfall patterns in eastern Australia. Using district averages rather than rainfall data for individual cities or towns, further evidence is provided for cyclic variations in precipitation with periods of 18–19, 10–11 and 6–7 years. Results from various regional areas in western Queensland and western New South Wales differ from those found further south in Victoria, and connections are suggested between El Niño/southern oscillation events and the incidence of drought in these two separate areas. Such findings are consistent with ecological aspects of the quasi-periodic occurrence of bushfire seasons as observed in both Victorian eucalypt forests after prolonged drought, or after intermittent widespread rains in the semi-arid Mallee rangelands of western New South Wales.

The ~19-year cycles may be at least partly a reflection of solar and lunar tidal components and the ~11-year cycles (connected with the Sunspot cycle) could be the result of absorption of short wavelength solar emissions in the stratosphere and resultant photochemical events magnified to produce sea surface temperature changes. The ~19-year cycles are apparently associated with either increased or decreased rainfall, and such connections appear to reverse in parts of Australia about every 100 years. These reversals have been associated with major droughts at the end of the 19th and 20th centuries.

Additional keywords: bushfires, drought, El Niño, filter-analysis, rainfall cycles.


Acknowledgements

Thanks are due to Mr S. G. Marsden for providing filter outputs from analysis of the rainfall data, and to my son, Richard Vines, who has assisted greatly. I am grateful for Dr J. C. Noble’s stimulating help over many years; and Mr. A. I. Tomlinson has also contributed many valuable comments. Helpful suggestions were forwarded by three anonymous referees in the production of this paper; and I am especially indebted to the Editor for his important contributions and substantial amendments to the text.


References


Allan R. J. (2000). ENSO and climatic variability in the past 150 years. In: ‘El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts’. (Eds H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf.) pp. 3–55. (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.)

Berlage H. P. (1957). Fluctuations of More than One Year in the General Atmospheric Circulation, their Nature and Prognostic Value. Mededglingen en Verhandelingen Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut No. 69.

Berlage H. P. (1966). The Southern Oscillation and World Weather. Mededglingen en Verhandelingen Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut No. 88.

Bowen E. G. (1974). Kidson’s relation between sunspot number and the movement of high-pressure systems in Australia. In: ‘NASA Symposium’. (Eds W. R. Bandeen and S. P. Maran.) p. 56. (Goddard Space-Flight Centre: Maryland.)

Clewett J. F. , Clarkson N. M. , George D. A. , Ooi S. H. , Owens D. T. , Partridge I. J. , and Simpson G. B. (2003). ‘Rainman Streamflow Version 4.3; a Comprehensive Climate and Streamflow Analysis Package on CD to Assess Seasonal Forecasts and Manage Climate Risk. QI03040.’ (Department of Primary Industries, Queensland: Brisbane.)

Craddock J. M. (1957) An analysis of slower temperature variations at Kew Observatory by means of mutually exclusive band pass filters. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) 120, 387–397.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | (accessed 28 July 2008).

Tomlinson A. I. (1980) A non-random feature in New Zealand rainfall. New Zealand Geographer 36, 68–72.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Treloar N. C. (2002) Luni-solar tidal influences on climate variability. International Journal of Climatology 22, 1527–1542.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Tyson P. D. (1986). ‘Climate Change and Variability in Southern Africa.’ (Oxford University Press: Cape Town.)

Tyson P. D., Dyer T. G. J. (1978) The predicted above-normal rainfall of the seventies and the likelihood of droughts in the eighties in South Africa. South African Journal of Science 74, 372–377. open url image1

Tyson P. D., Dyer T. G. J., Mametse M. N. (1975) Secular changes in South African rainfall: 1880–1972. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 101, 817–833.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Vines R. G. (1974). Weather Patterns and Bush-fire Cycles in Southern Australia. Technical Paper No. 2, CSIRO Division of Chemical Technology, Melbourne.

Vines R. G. (1977) Possible relationships between rainfall, crop yields and the Sunspot cycle. Journal of the Australian Institute of Agricultural Science 43, 3–13. open url image1

Vines R. G. (1980) Analyses of South African rainfall. South African Journal of Science 76, 404–409. open url image1

Vines R. G. (1981a). Rainfall patterns in South Africa, south-eastern Australia and New Zealand. In: ‘Proceedings of CNES (1980) Sun and Climate Conference’. Toulouse, France. pp. 55–66. (CNES/CNRS)

Vines R. G. (1981b). Physics and chemistry of rural fires. In: ‘Fire and the Australian Biota’. (Eds A. M. Gill, R. H. Groves and I. R. Noble.) pp. 130–149. (Australian Academy of Science: Canberra.)

Vines R. G. (1982) Rainfall patterns in southern South America and possible relationships with similar patterns in South Africa. South African Journal of Science 78, 457–459. open url image1

Vines R. G. (1986) Rainfall patterns in India. Journal of Climatology 6, 135–148.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Vines R. G., Noble J. C., Marsden S. G. (2004) Australian rainfall patterns and the southern oscillation. 1. A continental perspective. Pacific Conservation Biology 10, 28–48. open url image1

Vines R. G., Tomlinson A. I. (1980) An analysis of New Zealand’s rainfall. New Zealand Journal of Science 23, 205–216. open url image1

Vines R. G., Tomlinson A. I. (1985) The Southern Oscillation and rainfall patterns in the Southern Hemisphere. South African Journal of Science 81, 151–156. open url image1

White W. B., Gershunov A., Annis J., McKeon G., Syktus J. (2004) Forecasting Australian drought using Southern Hemisphere modes of sea-surface temperature variability. International Journal of Climatology 24, 1911–1927.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

White W. B., Lean J., Cayan D. R., Dettinger M. D. (1997) A response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance. Journal of Geophysical Research 102, 3255–3266.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

White W. B., McKeon G., Sytkus J. (2003) Australian drought; the interference of multi-spectral global standing modes and traveling waves. International Journal of Climatology 23, 631–662.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1