An economic analysis of sown pasture trends on the tablelands of south-eastern New South Wales

Abstract

The latter part of the 20^th century has seen a persistent decline in the productivity of some types of sown pastures on the central and southern tablelands of New South Wales. Currently, much research effort is directed to stabilising the perennial grass component of these pastures. This paper evaluates the economic justification of that emphasis. It is argued that trends in livestock production can usefully represent increases or decreases in the stocks of three broad categories of sown pastures that are defined as being those pastures sown to introduced perennial grasses and legumes (perennial grasses), introduced legumes only (legumes), and the total of both these categories. Regression methods were used to determine the changes that have occurred in the livestock production from these pastures that could be explained by changes in a range of economic and other variables. The estimated models were then used to forecast wool, beef and lamb production from each pasture type. The results indicate that changes in prices and costs have influenced the trends in animal production from these pastures and that the structures of these influences have changed over time. Production from perennial grass-legume pastures has remained high relative to production from legume pastures despite adverse cost-price trends. The forecasts indicated a continuation of present levels of perennial grass-legume pasture areas but a decline in production from the legume pastures. The results support the concerns about the continued deterioration in the legume only pastures and the thrust of R&D programs that promote the benefits of perennial grass-legume pastures. The use and analysis of public data to improve understanding of the economic factors that influence the long-term stability of intensively grazed rangelands is highlighted.