Red hot frogs: identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction
Hayley M. Geyle
A AD , Conrad J. Hoskin B , Deborah S. Bower C , Renee Catullo D E , Simon Clulow F , Michael Driessen G H , Katrina Daniels I , Stephen T. Garnett A , Deon Gilbert J , Geoffrey W. Heard K L M , Jean-Marc Hero N O P , Harry B. Hines Q R , Emily P. Hoffmann E , Greg Hollis S , David A. Hunter T , Frank Lemckert U V , Michael Mahony W , Gerry Marantelli X , Keith R. McDonald R , Nicola J. Mitchell E , David Newell Y , J. Dale Roberts E , Ben C. Scheele Z , Michael Scroggie K , Eric Vanderduys AA , Skye Wassens L , Matt West AB , John C. Z. Woinarski A and Graeme R. Gillespie AC
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Threatened Species Recovery Hub, National Environmental Science Program, Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, NT 0909, Australia.
B College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.
C School of Environmental and Rural Science, The University of New England, NSW 2351, Australia.
D Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
E School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
F Centre for Conservation Ecology and Genomics, Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT 2617, Australia.
G Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, 134 Macquarie Street Hobart, Tas. 7000, Australia.
H Discipline of Geography and Spatial Sciences, School of Technology, Environments and Design, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 78, Hobart, Tas. 7001, Australia.
I Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
J Wildlife Conservation and Science, Zoos Victoria, Parkville, Vic. 3052, Australia.
K Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, Vic. 3084, Australia.
L Institute of Land, Water and Society, School of Environmental Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Thurgoona, NSW 2640, Australia.
M Fenner School for Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
N STEM Academy, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia.
O School of Science and Engineering, The University of the Sunshine Coast, Qld 4556, Australia.
P Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, University of Kent, Canterbury, CT27NR, UK.
Q Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service and Partnerships, Department of Environment and Science, Bellbowrie, Qld 4070, Australia.
R Biodiversity, Queensland Museum, South Brisbane, Qld 4101, Australia.
S Baw Baw Shire Council, Warragul, Vic. 3820, Australia.
T New South Wales Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, Albury, NSW 2640, Australia.
U Eco Logical Australia, Newcastle, NSW 2300, Australia.
V Australian Museum Research Institute, Australian Museum, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia.
W School of Environmental and Life Sciences, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia.
X Amphibian Research Centre, Pearcedale, Vic. 3912, Australia.
Y Forest Research Centre, School of Environment Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW 2480, Australia.
Z Threatened Species Recovery Hub, National Environmental Science Program, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
AA CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Qld 4000, Australia.
AB Threatened Species Recovery Hub, National Environmental Science Program, School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic. 3052, Australia.
AC Flora and Fauna Division, Department of Environment, Parks and Water Security, Palmerston, NT 0831, Australia.
AD Corresponding author. Email: hayley.geyle@cdu.edu.au
Pacific Conservation Biology 28(3) 211-223 https://doi.org/10.1071/PC21019
Submitted: 22 March 2021 Accepted: 9 June 2021 Published: 20 August 2021
Journal Compilation © CSIRO 2022 Open Access CC BY
Abstract
More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as ‘Threatened’ based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’) influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic events (e.g. a severe heatwave or a large bushfire). Experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for poorly known species (those with <10 experts), while non-experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for better-known species. However, scores converged following discussion, indicating that there was greater consensus in the estimates of extinction probability. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia’s frogs. Key priorities include developing and supporting captive management and establishing or extending in-situ population refuges to alleviate the impacts of disease and climate change.
Keywords: amphibian, anthropogenic mass extinction crisis, Australia, biodiversity conservation, climate change, Delphi, expert elicitation, frog, IDEA, IUCN criteria, threatening processes.
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