Projected direct and indirect effects of climate change on the Swift Parrot, an endangered migratory species
Luciana L. Porfirio A B E , Rebecca M. B. Harris C , Dejan Stojanovic B , Mathew H. Webb B and Brendan Mackey D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Building 002, Wilf Crane Crescent, Yarralumla, ACT 2601, Australia.
B The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, B48A, Linneaus Way, Acton, ACT 0200, Australia.
C Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), University of Tasmania, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tas. 7000, Australia.
D Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Academic 1 Building (G01), Gold Coast campus, Griffith University, Parklands Drive, Southport, Qld 4222, Australia.
E Corresponding author. Email: Luciana.Porfirio@csiro.au
Emu 116(3) 273-283 https://doi.org/10.1071/MU15094
Submitted: 14 September 2015 Accepted: 25 January 2016 Published: 24 May 2016
Abstract
Assessing future changes in the suitability of the climate niche for interacting species across different trophic levels can identify direct and indirect effects of climate change that may be missed using single-species approaches. We use ensembles of species distribution models based on a dynamically down-scaled regional climate model to project the future suitability of climate for the Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor), its primary food and habitat resources (Tasmanian Blue Gum (Eucalyptus globulus) and Swamp Gum (E. ovata)), and an introduced nest predator, the Sugar Glider (Petaurus breviceps). These results are combined with layers representing mature forest and fire danger to identify locations that may act as refuges for the Swift Parrot from fire, deforestation and predation under baseline and future climates. Almost a quarter of the nesting habitat of Swift Parrots is projected to become climatically unsuitable by the end of the 21st century, but large areas may remain climatically suitable for both Swift Parrots and their food trees. However, loss of forests and the presence of Sugar Gliders are likely to limit the availability of high-quality habitat. Offshore islands that the Sugar Glider is unable to colonise or where future climate is not projected to be suitable for the Sugar Glider may be the only places, in the near future, where the Swift Parrot will be protected from nest predation by this introduced species.
Additional keywords: Eucalypts, migratory bird, model ensemble, refugia, species distribution models, species interactions, Sugar Glider, trophic level.
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