Declining adult survival of New Zealand Bar-tailed Godwits during 2005–2012 despite apparent population stability
Jesse R. Conklin A H , Tamar Lok A B , David S. Melville C , Adrian C. Riegen D , Rob Schuckard E , Theunis Piersma A F and Phil F. Battley G
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Conservation Ecology Group, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, PO Box 11103, 9700 CC Groningen, The Netherlands.
B Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, UMR 5175, Campus CNRS, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier, Cedex 5, France.
C 1261 Dovedale Road, RD2 Wakefield, Nelson 7096, New Zealand.
D 231 Forest Hill Road, Waiatarua, Waitakere 0612, New Zealand.
E PO Box 98, Rai Valley 7145, New Zealand.
F Department of Marine Ecology, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The Netherlands.
G Ecology Group, Institute of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand.
H Corresponding author. Email: conklin.jesse@gmail.com
Emu 116(2) 147-157 https://doi.org/10.1071/MU15058
Submitted: 30 May 2015 Accepted: 13 November 2015 Published: 10 March 2016
Abstract
Like many migratory shorebird populations using the East Asian–Australasian Flyway, Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica baueri in New Zealand have significantly declined since the mid-1990s, but census data indicate a relatively stable population since 2004. The demographic drivers of both the decline and stabilisation remain unknown. We estimated annual survival from mark–recapture data of adult godwits in New Zealand during 2005–2014. Annual adult survival declined over the study period from 0.89–0.96 in 2005–2010 to 0.83–0.84 in 2011–2012. The simultaneous decline in annual survival found in a separate study of Bar-tailed Godwits L. l. menzbieri in north-west Australia suggests a common effect of their high dependence on threatened migratory staging sites in the Yellow Sea; the more extreme decline in L. l. menzbieri may reflect ecological differences between the populations, such as timing and extent of use of these sites. At current apparent recruitment rates, persistent adult survival of ~0.84 would lead to a population decline of 5–6% per year in L. l. baueri. Our study implies that the demographic precursors to a population decline developed during a period of apparent population stability; this suggests that monitoring a single index of population stability is insufficient for predicting future trends.
Additional keywords: East Asian–Australasian Flyway, Limosa lapponica baueri, mark–recapture, shorebirds.
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