Effects of predation by introduced mammals and mortality due to severe floods on population viability of the endangered Blue Duck (Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos)
Craig Simpkins A , George L. W. Perry A B , Andrew Glaser C , Tim Allerby C and Todd E. Dennis A D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand.
B School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand.
C Department of Conservation, Te Urewera Whirinaki Area Office, 1/100 Valley Road, Whakatane 3120, New Zealand.
D Corresponding author. Email: t.dennis@auckland.ac.nz
Emu 115(2) 146-157 https://doi.org/10.1071/MU14057
Submitted: 11 March 2014 Accepted: 9 October 2014 Published: 3 February 2015
Abstract
Predation by introduced species and anthropogenic climate change now are two major threats to avifaunae worldwide. We developed an age-structured, stochastic simulation model to perform a population viability analysis for the Blue Duck, or Whio (Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos), an endangered waterfowl endemic to the upland rivers of New Zealand. Demographic responses to six predator-control and flood-frequency scenarios were assessed to examine projected trends in long-term population dynamics and viability. A baseline analysis of abundance at current rates of predation by introduced mammals and mortality due to severe flood events indicated that the study population of Whio has only a limited probability of persistence during the next 100 years. Importantly, we found that the additive effects of population losses due to predation and a rising frequency of floods (as predicted by general circulation models) increased extinction risk by 69%. Our study demonstrates the urgent need for heightened control of invasive predators in Whio conservation areas, as well as informed consideration of future changes in regional climate patterns when planning management actions for Whio and other similarly threatened riparian species.
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