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Assessing Climate-Driven Glacial Retreat, Snow Cover Reduction and GLOF Risks: Implications for Water Resource Management Amidst Rising Global Temperatures and CO2

Muhammad Yahya, Uzma Noreen, Kotb A. Attia, Fariha Jabeen , Afifa Aslam, Navid Anjum, Asim Abbasi, Kalsoom Kalsoom, Syed Faizan Hassan Zaidi, Qurat ul Ain Qurat ul Ain

Abstract

Aim: The consequences of climate change, including alterations in snow and glacier patterns and rising temperatures poses a risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) which can have cross-border impacts. This research paper focuses on the assessment of changes in snow cover within Chitral district imposed by temperature increase. Methods: ArcGIS and Origin are used in this research to study the glacier pattern of Chitral. Results: Notably, the study observes a significant increase of 266.7% in urban development and an expansion of 135.9 km2 in agricultural areas within this remote mountainous region. The findings of the study reveal that in the year 2000, >51.6% of Chitral district's total land was covered by snow during early winter. However, this coverage drastically declined to ≈ 6.8% by 2008. Across the initial two four-year periods, around 44.7% (5694.6 km2) of the glaciated area transitioned to barren rock, while the overall reduction in snow-covered areas accounted for approximately 43.3% (5514.6 km2). Conclusion & Implications: Due to the increasing stress on freshwater resources, it is essential to conduct thorough analyses and monitoring of snow patterns to ensure sustainable freshwater availability and effective environmental risk management. Keywords: Sustainability; Fresh water reserves; GLOF; Glaciers; Climate Change; CO2

MF24177  Accepted 06 November 2024

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