Register      Login
Marine and Freshwater Research Marine and Freshwater Research Society
Advances in the aquatic sciences
Shopping Cart: ( empty )
You are here: Home > Journals > MF > MF09093
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 61(5)

A Bayesian network model linking nutrient management actions in the Tully catchment (northern Queensland) with Great Barrier Reef condition

Will Shenton A , Barry T. Hart A C and Jon Brodie B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Water Studies Centre, Monash University, Melbourne, Vic. 3800, Australia.

B Australian Centre for Tropical Freshwater Research, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.

C Corresponding author. Email: barry.hart@waterscience.com.au

Marine and Freshwater Research 61(5) 587-595 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF09093
Submitted: 24 April 2009  Accepted: 18 November 2009   Published: 28 May 2010

Abstract

Correlating catchment management actions with improvements in the ecological condition of downstream coastal regions is challenging. We describe a Bayesian network (BN) model that predicts the effects of nitrogen-fertiliser management strategies in the Tully River catchment (northern Queensland) on the condition of inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The model consists of three linked submodels that relate sugarcane nitrogen management with runoff into the Tully River and nitrate concentration in the GBR lagoon, predicts phytoplankton biomass in the GBR lagoon from the nitrate inputs, and links the phytoplankton biomass with three marine influences to predict the probability of the reefs being dominated by coral (good) or macro-algae (bad). Four scenarios were modelled – current and the ‘six easy steps’ nitrogen management, and active and depleted algal grazing (herbivory) of the reef. The model predicts an increased probability of the reef being coral-dominated with current fertiliser practice and with active reef herbivory, with increased algal-dominance if reef herbivory is decreased. Introduction of a better nitrogen-fertiliser management with active herbivory resulted in an increased probability of coral dominance. This comparative-scenario analysis highlights the importance of both agricultural nutrient management practices and marine processes in predicting reef condition.

Additional keywords: decision support, fertiliser, nitrogen.


Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge Land and Water Australia for funding this project (Project UMO43). We also thank Dr Simon Roberts and Dr Mike Grace for invaluable discussions, insights and guidance in this work. Comments from two anonymous referees helped improve the paper.


References

Armour, J. D. , Hateley, L. R. , and Pitt, G. L. (2009). Catchment modelling of sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient loads with SedNet/ANNEX in the Tully–Murray basin. Marine and Freshwater Research 60, 1091–1096.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | Bainbridge Z., Brodie J., Lewis S., Waterhouse J., and Wilkinson S. (2009). Utilising catchment modelling as a tool for monitoring Reef Rescue outcomes in the Great Barrier Reef catchment area. In ‘18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation’. (Eds R. S. Anderssen, R. D. Braddock and L. T. H. Newham.) pp. 3301–3307. (Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation: Melbourne.)

Baker J. (2003). A report on the study of land-sourced pollutants and their impact on water quality in and adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef. Queensland Government. Brisbane.

Bakker H. (1999). ‘Sugar Cane Cultivation Management.’ (Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers: New York.)

Bell, P. R. F. , Lapointe, B. E. , and Elmetri, I. (2007). Re-evaluation of ENCORE: support for the eutrophication threshold model for coral reefs. Ambio 36, 416–424.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | PubMed | Brodie J., and Furnas M. J. (1996). Cyclones, river flood plumes and natural water quality extremes in the central Great Barrier Reef. In ‘Downstream Effects of Land Use’. (Eds H. M. Hunter, A. G. Eyles and G. E. Rayment.) pp. 367–374. (Queensland Department of Natural Resources: Brisbane.)

Brodie, J. E. , and Mitchell, A. W. (2005). Nutrients in Australian tropical rivers: changes with agricultural development and implications for receiving environments. Marine and Freshwater Research 56, 279–302.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | Brodie J., Furnas M., Ghonim S., Haynes D., Mitchell A., Morris S., Waterhouse J., Audas D., Lowe D., and Ryan M. (2001b). Great Barrier Reef catchment water quality action plan: a report to ministerial council on targets for pollution loads. Parts 1, 2 and 3. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Qld.

Brodie, J. , De'ath, G. , Devlin, M. , Furnas, M. , and Wright, M. (2007). Spatial and temporal patterns of near-surface chlorophyll a in the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. Marine and Freshwater Research 58, 342–353.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | Brodie J. E., Binney J., Fabricius K., Gordon I., Hoegh-Guldberg O., et al. (2008). Scientific consensus statement on water quality in the Great Barrier Reef. Queensland Department of the Premier and Cabinet, Brisbane. Available at http:www.reefplan.qld.gov.au/library/pdf/publicationsScientific%20Consensus%20Statement%20on%20Water%20Quality%20in%20the%20GBR.pdf [verified December 2008].

Brodie, J. , Lewis, S. , Bainbridge, Z. , Mitchell, A. , Waterhouse, J. , and Kroon, F. (2009). Target setting for pollutant discharge management of rivers in the Great Barrier Reef catchment area. Marine and Freshwater Research 60, 1141–1149.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | Cheesman O. D. (2004). ‘Environmental Impacts of Sugar Production.’ (CABI Publishing: Oxford, UK.)

Devlin, M. J. , and Brodie, J. (2005). Terrestrial discharge into the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon: nutrient behaviour in coastal waters. Marine Pollution Bulletin 51, 9–22.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | PubMed | Drewry J., Higham W., Mitchell C., and Rohde H. (2007). Modelling sediment and nutrient exports and management scenarios. Technical report, Mackay Whitsunday NRM Group, Mackay, Qld. Available at www.reefcatchments.com.au [verified December 2008].

Drewry J., Higham W., and Mitchell C. (2008). Water quality improvement plan – final report for the Mackay Whitsunday Region. Mackay Whitsunday NRM Group, Mackay, Qld. Available at www.reefcatchments.com.au [verified December 2008].

Eberhard, R. , Robinson, C. , Waterhouse, J. , Parslow, J. , Hart, B. , Grayson, R. , and Taylor, B. (2009). Adaptive management for environmental planning – a pragmatic approach for the Great Barrier Reef. Marine and Freshwater Research 60, 1189–1195.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | Fabricius K. E. (2007). Conceptual model of the effects of terrestrial runoff on the ecology of corals and coral reefs of the GBR. Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility (MTSRF), Cairns, Qld. Available at www.rrrc.org.au/publications/downloads/Project-371-Conceptual-Model-Report.pdf [verified May 2010].

Fabricius, K. E. , De'ath, G. , McCook, L. J. , Turak, E. , and Williams, D. (2005). Coral, algae and fish communities on inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef: ecological gradients along water quality gradients. Marine Pollution Bulletin 51, 384–398.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | PubMed | Hart B. T., and Pollino C. A. (2009). Bayesian networks for risk-based environmental water allocations. Waterlines Report Series No 14. National Water Commission, Canberra.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (1999). Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs. Marine and Freshwater Research 50, 839–866.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | Kroon F. (2008). Draft Tully water quality improvement plan. CSIRO report to Terrain NRM, Cairns, Qld.

Kroon, F. J. (2009). Integrated research to improve water quality in the Great Barrier Reef region. Marine and Freshwater Research 60, i–iii.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | Littler M. M., and Littler D. S. (1984). Models of tropical reef biogenesis: the contribution of algae. In ‘Progress in Phycological Research. Vol. 3’. (Eds F. E. Round and D. J. Chapman.) pp. 323–364. (Biopress: Bristol, UK.)

Littler, M. M. , and Littler, D. S. (2007). Assessment of coral reefs using herbivory/nutrient assays and indicator groups of benthic primary producers: a critical synthesis, proposed protocols and critique of management strategies. Aquatic Conservation: Marine & Freshwater Ecosystems 17, 195–215.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | Moody P. W., Reghenzani J. R., Armour J. D., Prove B. G., and McShane T. J. (1996). Nutrient balances and transport at farm scale – Johnstone River catchment. In ‘Proceedings of Conference of Downstream Effects of Land Use’. (Eds A. G. Eyles, H. M. Hunter and G. E. Rayment.) (Department of Natural Resources and Water: Brisbane.)

Neil, D. T. , Orpin, A. R. , Ridd, P. V. , and Yu, B. (2002). Sediment yield and impacts from river catchments to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. Marine and Freshwater Research 53, 733–752.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | Prove B. G., and Hicks W. S. (1991). Soil and nutrient movements from rural lands of north Queensland. In ‘Landuse Patterns and Nutrient Loading of the Great Barrier Reef Region’. (Ed. D. Yellowlees.) pp. 67–76. (James Cook University: Townsville, Qld.)

Rayment, G. E. (2003). Water quality in sugar catchments of Queensland. Water Science and Technology 48, 35–47.
|  CAS | Reef Plan (2003). Reef water quality protection plan for catchments adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area. Queensland Department of Premier and Cabinet, Brisbane.

Schroeder B., Wood A., Hurney A., and Panitz J. (2007). ‘Accelerating the Adoption of Best Management Practice Nutrient Management: Wet Tropics.’ (BSES Limited/CSR: Bundaberg, Qld.)

Shenton W., Hart B. T., and Chan T. (2009). Bayesian network model for environmental flow decision-making in the Latrobe River, Victoria, Australia. River Research and Applications, in press. doi:10.1002/RRA.1348

Smith, J. E. , Smith, C. M. , and Hunter, C. L. (2001). An experimental analysis of the effects of herbivory and nutrient enrichment on benthic community dynamics on a Hawaiian reef. Coral Reefs 19, 332–342.
Sweatman H. P. A., Cheal A. J., Coleman G. J., Emslie M. J., Johns K., Jonker M., Miller I. R., and Osborne K. (2008). Long term monitoring of the Great Barrier Reef. Status report no. 8, 2008. Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Qld. Available at www.aims.gov.au/source/research/monitoring/status-reports/status-report-08.pdf [verified May 2010].

Thomas C. R., Gordon I. J., Wooldridge S., van Grieken M., and Marshall P. (2009). The development of an integrated systems model for balancing coral reef health, land management and tourism risks on the Great Barrier Reef. In ‘18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation’, July 2009. (Eds R. S. Anderssen, R. D. Braddock and L. T. H. Newham.) pp. 3301–3307. (Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation.) Available at www.mssanz.org.au/modsim09/J3/thomas_cr.pdf [verified July 2009].

Thorburn P. J. (2004). Influences of N fertilizer management on off-site loss of water contaminants. In ‘Cane Farming to Improve Water Quality’. (Eds L. N. Robertson and R. J. Troedson.) pp. 32–34. (Sugar Research Development Corporation (SRDC): Brisbane.)

Uusitalo, L. (2007). Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling. Ecological Modelling 203, 312–318.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | Wachenfeld D., Oliver J., and Morrissey J. (1998). State of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Townsville (Australia). Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville.

Wilkinson C. (2004). ‘Status of Coral Reefs of the World.’ (Australian Institute of Marine Science: Townsville, Qld.)

Wolanski, E. , Richmond, R. H. , and McCook, L. (2004). A model of the effects of land-based, human activities on the health of coral reefs in the Great Barrier Reef and in Fouha Bay, Guam, Micronesia. Journal of Marine Systems 46, 133–144.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | Wrigley T. (2005). Canegrowers public environment report 2005. Australian Cane Growers Council Ltd, Brisbane.