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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 61(5)

A Bayesian network model linking nutrient management actions in the Tully catchment (northern Queensland) with Great Barrier Reef condition

Will Shenton A , Barry T. Hart A C and Jon Brodie B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Water Studies Centre, Monash University, Melbourne, Vic. 3800, Australia.

B Australian Centre for Tropical Freshwater Research, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.

C Corresponding author. Email: barry.hart@waterscience.com.au

Marine and Freshwater Research 61(5) 587-595 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF09093
Submitted: 24 April 2009  Accepted: 18 November 2009   Published: 28 May 2010

Abstract

Correlating catchment management actions with improvements in the ecological condition of downstream coastal regions is challenging. We describe a Bayesian network (BN) model that predicts the effects of nitrogen-fertiliser management strategies in the Tully River catchment (northern Queensland) on the condition of inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The model consists of three linked submodels that relate sugarcane nitrogen management with runoff into the Tully River and nitrate concentration in the GBR lagoon, predicts phytoplankton biomass in the GBR lagoon from the nitrate inputs, and links the phytoplankton biomass with three marine influences to predict the probability of the reefs being dominated by coral (good) or macro-algae (bad). Four scenarios were modelled – current and the ‘six easy steps’ nitrogen management, and active and depleted algal grazing (herbivory) of the reef. The model predicts an increased probability of the reef being coral-dominated with current fertiliser practice and with active reef herbivory, with increased algal-dominance if reef herbivory is decreased. Introduction of a better nitrogen-fertiliser management with active herbivory resulted in an increased probability of coral dominance. This comparative-scenario analysis highlights the importance of both agricultural nutrient management practices and marine processes in predicting reef condition.

Additional keywords: decision support, fertiliser, nitrogen.


Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge Land and Water Australia for funding this project (Project UMO43). We also thank Dr Simon Roberts and Dr Mike Grace for invaluable discussions, insights and guidance in this work. Comments from two anonymous referees helped improve the paper.


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