A Search for the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 1998 OX4: Implications for a Possible Close Encounter in 2014

Abstract

Small bodies of 100–500 m diameter can cause significant damage on impact with the Earth. Such objects are difficult to detect and track because they are intrinsically faint over most of their orbit. We failed to detect one such lost and potentially hazardous minor planet, 1998 OX₄, during two observing sessions in 2001, January. The positions searched were those calculated by Milani et al. (2000) with their Virtual Impactors method. Using some simple assumptions we estimate the probability that we failed to detect 1998 OX₄ due to it being obscured by objects in the field of our observations is <2 × 10⁻⁷. If the assumptions in the Virtual Impactor model are valid we conclude that an impact with 1998 OX₄ is unlikely in 2014, January. Furthermore, given the relatively large area we searched it is also unlikely that this minor planet will have a very close encounter with Earth in 2014.