Dynamic simulation of fire propagation in forests and rangelands using a GIS-based cellular automata model
Navid Mahdizadeh Gharakhanlou A C and Navid Hooshangi B C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Laboratory of Environmental Geosimulation (LEDGE), Department of Geography, University of Montreal, 1375 Avenue Thérèse-Lavoie-Roux, Montréal, Québec H2V 0B3, Canada.
B Department of Surveying Engineering, College of Earth Sciences Engineering, Arak University of Technology, Arak 3818146763, Iran.
C Corresponding authors. Email: navid.mahdizadeh.gharakhanlou@umontreal.ca; hooshangi@arakut.ac.ir
International Journal of Wildland Fire 30(9) 652-663 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20098
Submitted: 29 June 2020 Accepted: 25 May 2021 Published: 25 June 2021
Abstract
Prediction of the way wildfires propagate in forests and rangelands is one of the critical issues in environmental protection and disaster management. This research aims to simulate wildfire propagation using a geographical information system (GIS)-based cellular automata (CA) model. The model considers the most effective spatial and temporal drivers of wildfire propagation, including wind speed and direction, type and density of vegetation, and topographic conditions. Wind speed and direction were considered changeable over the simulation process. A genetic algorithm (GA) was used to calibrate the model developed. Validation of the model was performed using an independent fire case assessed by the overall accuracy (OA) criterion and the Kappa coefficient index. The mean values obtained for the OA and the Kappa coefficient in 100 runs for two wildfire cases indicated that the proposed model could be effectively used in the simulation of wildfire propagation. The results of this model can assist fire managers in predicting fire propagation to better control wildfires.
Keywords: cellular automata (CA), error matrix, fire spread, forest fire, genetic algorithm (GA), geographical information system (GIS), simulation, wildfires.
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