Uncertainty in bio-economic reference points and indicators of marine fisheries

Abstract

The design of intelligent management plans for marine fisheries requires recognition of the uncertainty of marine systems when assessing fishery performance through the use of bio-economic indicators. The uncertainty causing variability in the estimated values of the bio-economic indicators is incorporated through the use of Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the probability of exceeding limit reference points. To account for natural variability and other sources of uncertainty, estimates of appropriate fishery bio-economic indicators are needed in order to re-evaluate the fishery periodically and establish new reference points and corresponding management strategies. This paper concentrates on this aspect of the management process. It presents a classification of indicators in accordance with the level, change and structure framework. Alternative approaches to deal with risk and uncertainty in data-limited management contexts are discussed.