Forecasting wheat yield in a Mediterranean-type environment from the NOAA satellite

Abstract

This paper reports the relationship between the spatial variation in mean wheat yield/ha of 50 Local Government Areas in Western Australia and satellite measures of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Yield/ha was based on estimates of the area harvested and actual grain received by the Cooperative Bulk Handling Ltd. The study area covered 16.3 million ha, in which 2.9 million ha of wheat were sown and 4.66 million tonnes of grain harvested. This was 78% of the total Western Australian wheat crop. Spatial variations in NDVI in early July, at around stem elongation, accounted for 46% of the spatial variation in final yield. This increased to 56% of yield variance around the onset of anthesis at the end of August. It remained high until early November (48%) when crops were senescing or senescent. A combination of NDVI from late August and early November accounted for 70% of the yield variance. In comparison, total rainfall during the 1992 growing season from April to October, the main determinant of yield variations, accounted for 28% of the yield variation. The significant correlation of NDVI with final yield by the middle of the growing season 3 to 5 months before harvest indicates the feasibility of making useful yield forecasts from this time onwards. In addition, the NDVI could provide useful spatial information on the significance of the yield/canopy development/water use relationship which underlies this correlation.